Inflation appears to be moderating, and the US jobs market remains resilient although perhaps showing some cracks. Mr Trump used the inflation data as a reason to justify "demanding that" the Fed slash the Fed Fund rate by 100bps. Trade policy continues to zigzag, with investors starting to mostly ignore the rhetoric coming from the administration. Stocks and bonds were better through Thursday, with gold higher and the greenback weaker. The Israeli bombing of Iran overnig

US economic data is suggesting a slowing US economy, with the question about tariff-inflation unresolved. Unlike the Fed, the ECB continues to ease, lowering its policy rates 25bps on Thursday (for the 8th time). Risk markets remain relatively resilient, and bond yields improved, too. The Trump-Musk feud has grabbed headlines this week.

This week had a double trade war "positive" for investors, excellent earnings, strong earnings and a favourable outlook from Nvidia, the 2025 Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, the release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting, and a poor Japanese 40y bond auction.

All eyes have been on the 2025-26 US budget discussions in the House this week, with the "big beautiful bill" getting through (albeit barely) and heading to the Senate. Professional bond and currency investors are signalling concern, visible in higher UST yields and a weaker US Dollar.

Moody's downgraded the US, the last of the "big three" to strip the US of its triple-A rating. I suspect a muted reaction, at least initially, in the UST market. Stocks might take it worse. I also cover Walmart and its comments on tariffs.

President Trump has been in the Middle East this week with a contingent of US business leaders and his finance / economics team, cutting...

Markets continued to stabilise this week, at least as far as risk assets including global equities and BTC. Other assets moved sideways.

Markets are at last returning to some sense of normalcy, with the S&P 500 now clawing back all of its losses since the infamous...

Four of the infamous tech giants in the Mag & report earnings today and tomorrow: MSFT, META, AMZN and AAPL. Risk is downside asymmetrical.

This is the early edition of the weekly, covering earnings (TSLA and GOOG), Trump capitulation (again) and 2024 en primeur Bordeaux campaign

Quick look to start the week with earnings, including TSLA and GOOG, Jeffrey Sachs explaining poor Trump policies and the Fed's independence

There will be no "Fed put" according to Mr Powell, which rattled markets and evoked a response from Mr Trump. US equities slumped again.

We're up, we're down, we're all around! US stocks remain volatile but ended higher. Bonds are the "adult in the room" though.

The first quarter was actually quite decent for me, although the start to April has been horrible since there is nowhere to hide.

Down we go in a self-inflicted mess caused by Mr Trump's errant tariff policy. I talk about trade and budget deficits, and the week ahead.

The announcement of tariffs by President Trump on Weds made a nervous market completely puke, with stocks getting hammered.

This is a very brief update for the Mag 7 stocks for 1Q2025, all of which were down, several sharply. It is not getting better either!

The 1Q2025 is in the bag, not an easy quarter. US stocks performed poorly, but gold and European stocks did well. Treasuries also did ok.