The last two weeks were rather uneventful, so this is a quick summary of price performance in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. Are we in a bubble and don't know it?

Stocks were mixed last week, with European stocks turning in the best performance of the week, and Japanese stocks the worst. Tech stocks drove the NASDAQ higher, with the DJIA and Russell 2000 losing ground. Treasuries and gold were better bid. The catalysts were US economic data and several important central bank decisions, all of which were as expected. The coming weeks will be holiday-shortened.

The FOMC fell in line and served up an expected "hawkish rate cut". However, both Oracle and Broadcom – key players in the A.I. boom – saw their shares sink for different reasons, with the common denominator being A.I. valuation concerns. Yields were higher and gold rallied.

Stocks liked the economic data that was released this week, even though it was still light on official data as the US government recovers from its recent closure. Bond investors less happy, as yields gapped higher across the curve. All eyes are now on next week's FOMC meeting, where a 25bps reduction in the Fed Funds rate looks fully priced in.

Risk assets recovered strongly during the holiday-shortened (US Thanksgiving) session, with U.S. stocks leading the way. Japanese and European stocks rallied too. Bitcoin recovered slightly, and gold was higher. The catalyst was mainly growing expectations that the Fed would lower its policy rate at the December FOMC meeting. In the UK, chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the tax-fuelled budget.

The weekly update covers NVDA's excellent earnings; the A.I. shine which is wearing off; the minutes from the last FOMC meeting (Oct); and the fall of Bitcoin.

The U.S. government reopened this week although – coincidentally or not – U.S. equities swooned. The issue remains full-on valuations of U.S. stocks coupled with growing concerns with the enormous amounts of A.I. spend being put forward by many tech companies.

There are no shortage of investors which think stocks are well over-baked, especially stocks of companies that are directly or indirectly associated with the ongoing A.I. hype.  It has appeared for weeks that this was nothing more than scaremongering as stocks continued their stratospheric rise.  However, the past week saw scepticism start to set in as investor concerns regarding valuations broadened.  Tech stocks led the sell-off, although there were few places to hide as mo

It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.