The key driver last week was the US jobs report for September, which came in weaker than expected. This spared stocks, which staged a recovery on the basis that the Fed would not be so hawkish. But it did not spare bonds, in the US or elsewhere, as yields raced higher. What really caught my attention was the sudden widening in corporate credit spreads, which had remained resilient to the turmoil around for many months.

There is no shortage of villains to blame for the sell-off in government bonds. The midweek catalyst that sent US Treasuries into a tailspin was the release of September flash PMI data for the US manufacturing and services sectors........

The Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan delivered monetary policy decisions largely as expected last week, soothing bond investors who remain concerned about the cost of government borrowing globally. Stocks were mostly weaker with the exception off Japanese equities and the NASDAQ.

Stocks and bonds both got hammered, although global stocks did claw back some of the weekly losses during a strong session on Friday. Inflation in the US for August came in as expected, but was higher than in July setting the stage for a likely increase in the Fed Funds rate at this week's FOMC meeting. Consumer confidence tanked, and President Trump presented the idea of a "Trump Dividend" if Republicans carry the House and Senate. That's simply a stupid idea, but hey....

Markets largely drifted sideways again this past week, with U.S. stocks mixed, and European and Japanese stocks giving up ground. U.S. Treasury yields inched higher across the curve. The August U.S. jobs report showed solid growth, increasing the chance that the FOMC will raise the Fed Funds rate on Sept 18th. The Yen strengthened on expectations that the BoJ will do the right thing, and increase its policy rate. Gold was slightly weaker, and BTC held on to its recent gai

Not much happened in the dog days of late August, aside from Bitcoin rediscovering its mojo week before last as debasement returned to vogue.

Happy 250th birthday to America, and Happy Independence Day to my American colleagues. The summary today has a table for 1H2026 performance across indices and asset classes, as well as an update for the week.

"....That being said, let’s motor on to what really matters in the coming days – May CPI in the U.S. (released yesterday), upcoming central bank meetings, the SpaceX IPO which is on the launch pad (no pun intended), and U.S. social security."

It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.