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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended June 6, 2025: U.S. growth under scrutiny
US economic data is suggesting a slowing US economy, with the question about tariff-inflation unresolved. Unlike the Fed, the ECB continues to ease, lowering its policy rates 25bps on Thursday (for the 8th time). Risk markets remain relatively resilient, and bond yields improved, too. The Trump-Musk feud has grabbed headlines this week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
2 days ago5 min read
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Week ended May 30, 2025: Trade war softens
This week had a double trade war "positive" for investors, excellent earnings, strong earnings and a favourable outlook from Nvidia, the 2025 Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, the release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting, and a poor Japanese 40y bond auction.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 297 min read
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Week ended May 23, 2025: all eyes on US budget
All eyes have been on the 2025-26 US budget discussions in the House this week, with the "big beautiful bill" getting through (albeit barely) and heading to the Senate. Professional bond and currency investors are signalling concern, visible in higher UST yields and a weaker US Dollar.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 237 min read
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Week ended May 16, 2025: What caught my eye this week
President Trump has been in the Middle East this week with a contingent of US business leaders and his finance / economics team, cutting...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 158 min read
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Week ended May 9, 2025: Trump says "buy stocks" (again)
Markets continued to stabilise this week, at least as far as risk assets including global equities and BTC. Other assets moved sideways.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 86 min read
54
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Week ended April 4, 2025: stocks hammered following Trump tariff announcement
The announcement of tariffs by President Trump on Weds made a nervous market completely puke, with stocks getting hammered.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 55 min read
112
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First quarter 2025 review of markets
The 1Q2025 is in the bag, not an easy quarter. US stocks performed poorly, but gold and European stocks did well. Treasuries also did ok.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 312 min read
53
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Week ended Jan 31, 2025: earnings and central bank decisions dominate
The week started and ended poorly for US stocks, delivering losses for the week. European stocks have been the best performers YtD.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 15 min read
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WEEKLY: Damn glad that's over!
It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20223 min read
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