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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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U.S. Treasury Yields: what's next?
US Treasury yields are stuck, with the 10y UST yielding just north of 4%, What might be coming next? This article presents the factors that will influence the next gap up or down in UST yields.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 13, 20257 min read
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What might A.I. mean for investors?
I am not expert in artificial intelligence, although I do have a basic grasp of its expected benefits balanced by the possible social implications. However, this article focuses on A.I. from an investor's perspective, since the stocks of companies that can attach themselves even loosely to the A.I. narrative have taken off like a rocket.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20258 min read
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Record high after record high....what to do?
As risk markets surge, especially US stocks (but also corporate bonds), it's hard not to scratch your head and ask how long this can carry on? I have no idea, but I think the end might be near. In the meantime, I stick to my standard investment approach.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 18, 20256 min read
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First half 2025: indices and market update
This article contains tables and commentary regarding the rather volatile but ultimately positive first half of 2025.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 4, 20256 min read
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Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 6, 20259 min read
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Summary of 2024 in tables
This article contains a summary of full-year 2024 performance of the indices and assets tracked by EMC, plus historical data, too.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 3, 20251 min read
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2024 market and asset performance vs my expectations: how'd I do?
I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20248 min read
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Does the "Trump rally" have legs?
Some stocks that clearly "track" President-elect Trump's varied campaign promises have rallied hard, including TSLA, BTC, COIN and KRE.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20245 min read
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Midweek update: Apple, CPI/FOMC, GME
We have some US data coming that might matter today (CPI), but the FOMC will sit tight (also today). Discusses Apple's run and GameStop.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 12, 20247 min read
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