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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Update: May CPI, central bank meetings, SpaceX IPO and Social Security
"....That being said, let’s motor on to what really matters in the coming days – May CPI in the U.S. (released yesterday), upcoming central bank meetings, the SpaceX IPO which is on the launch pad (no pun intended), and U.S. social security."

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 115 min read


The SpaceX IPO: insane valuation but will likely fly
The pending IPO of Elon Musk-controlled SpaceX (symbol SPCX) is grabbing all of the headlines at the moment, and for good reason – it is not only expected to be the largest IPO ever, but also the largest company (by market cap) to ever do an IPO. The proposed offering is also unique in other ways. For starters, the IPO marketing process is unconventional. For example, the offer price per share – normally provided as a range once investor meetings are well underway – has al

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 410 min read


Private credit: déjà vu?
This is a LONG and COMPLEX article regarding parallels between the meltdown of structured products like CDOs, CMOs and CLOs that led to the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2009, and today's current private credit market. It is not for the faint of heart, or those looking for an easy read.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 2617 min read


Stocks - do they always go up?
This article is the third update of an article I originally penned in March 2022, examining the long-term return of US stocks. The short answer to the question "do stocks always go up" is a resounding "yes", so long as the holding period is long.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 2112 min read


10% cap on credit card interest: a very bad idea!
President Trump has shown his populist colours by jumping on board a liberal proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. This makes no sense! And it looks to be going nowhere fast.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 296 min read


U.S. Treasury Yields: what's next?
US Treasury yields are stuck, with the 10y UST yielding just north of 4%, What might be coming next? This article presents the factors that will influence the next gap up or down in UST yields.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 13, 20257 min read


What might A.I. mean for investors?
I am not expert in artificial intelligence, although I do have a basic grasp of its expected benefits balanced by the possible social implications. However, this article focuses on A.I. from an investor's perspective, since the stocks of companies that can attach themselves even loosely to the A.I. narrative have taken off like a rocket.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20258 min read


Record high after record high....what to do?
As risk markets surge, especially US stocks (but also corporate bonds), it's hard not to scratch your head and ask how long this can carry on? I have no idea, but I think the end might be near. In the meantime, I stick to my standard investment approach.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 18, 20256 min read


First half 2025: indices and market update
This article contains tables and commentary regarding the rather volatile but ultimately positive first half of 2025.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 4, 20256 min read
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