Weeks ended Aug 21 and Aug 28, 2026: not much happening

The last two weeks have been mainly a “nothing burger” as far as market-moving news.  This is what has happened the best I recall from my armchair:

• NVDA released blow-out earnings (again),

• Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole increased the chances of a September rate rise in the Fed Funds rate above 50%,

• August consumer confidence in the U.S. resumed its downward march, and

• “Lake Ontario” was renamed “Lake America” by President Trump in a tariff tit-for-tat exchange with Canada.  (Do you ever feel like you’re witnessing an 8-year old bully at primary school?  Or is that just me?) 

As I anticipated, there wasn’t a lot of activity in markets the last two weeks, with perhaps the most excitement stemming from fears of debasement (again) in the aftermath of the U.S. Treasury’s announcement that it would buy long-dated U.S. Treasuries to push yields lower.  This lit a fire under “debasement beneficiaries” like gold, but especially Bitcoin.  Rocketing from around $63,000 to $78,000 in two weeks (since I last wrote a weekly update), the crypto bros finally found a reason to “party like it’s 1999” in the dog days of the late summer. 

Here’s the summary of what happened last week and YtD.

During my weekly update hiatus – should you have missed them – I penned two articles that might interest you……or at least the topics interested me.

• The “new” Berkshire and Michael Burry: investment philosophies and lessons:  I consider the common thread between Berkshire (even the “new” Berkshire) and Michael Burry to be value investing, with Dr Burry of course willing to play both the long and short side of select names when he has conviction.  If you are involved in the semi-conductor sub-sector (I am), you best pay attention to his views, like them or not.

  
  

• Government intervention is not a long-term fix: The title says it all – the coordinated approach between the U.S. and Japan to strengthen the Yen, and the ill-advised announcement by Treasury Secretary Bessent to buy long-dated Treasuries, are both bad ideas that will not work in the long-term.  Neither exercise addresses the actual underlying causes of Yen weakness and high interest rates in the U.S.  In fact, both are nothing more than band-aids when “extensive surgery” and long-term solutions should be in order.  I don’t get it at all, and investors will push back on both (as they already have).  Duh??

WHAT I’VE BEEN DOING

I have been monitoring the semi-conductor sector simply because it has been so volatile, but have not added more to the TSM position I established in July.  I did take a view I rarely take though, perhaps out of boredom.  I could not resist buying puts on CRWD the day after the company’s earnings (on Thursday), when the stock gapped up to above $220/share.  The valuation is insane, and the best I can tell, A.I. could cut either way for cyber-security companies like CRWD.  And this line of thinking lured me into also buying puts on TSLA the same day, a stock with no growth that is also wildly over-valued.  Both CRWD and TSLA are meme-like in their following, and fundamentals are often (in fact mostly) trumped by an army of retail followers that don’t give a toss about intrinsic value.  This is my old-school thinking coming to the forefront, and I’ll probably pay the price.  Some lessons are never learnt, but this provided me with some entertainment in the late summer.

WHAT’S AHEAD

Tomorrow (Monday) is a bank holiday in the U.K., so markets will be closed.  The U.S. market is also likely to have a slow week with the Labor Day holiday approaching, which is the following Monday (Sept 7^th).

Next Friday – just before the long weekend in the U.S. – unemployment data for August will be released before the open.   JOLTS data and ISM data for August for the U.S. will also be released towards the end of the week. There is also ISM data that will be released during the week for China.  Eurozone CPI for August will be released on Monday, and PPI for August later in the week.

The next FOMC meeting is fixed for Sept 15-16, with the Fed’s monetary policy decision expected on the 16^th (Weds).  Following Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, investors in shorter dated U.S. Treasuries are signalling that a 25bps increase in the Fed Funds rate is expected, and the CME FedWatch Tool is pointing towards the same (60% chance of 25bps increase in the Fed Funds rate).    

MARKET DATA AND TABLES

Below are detailed tables of key indices and asset prices that have been updated for the past two weeks. 

_________________

**** Follow E-MorningCoffee on BlueSky, and please like and comment on my posts right here on my blog. You need to be a subscriber, so please sign up. Thanks for your support. ****