Inflation appears to be moderating, and the US jobs market remains resilient although perhaps showing some cracks. Mr Trump used the inflation data as a reason to justify "demanding that" the Fed slash the Fed Fund rate by 100bps. Trade policy continues to zigzag, with investors starting to mostly ignore the rhetoric coming from the administration. Stocks and bonds were better through Thursday, with gold higher and the greenback weaker. The Israeli bombing of Iran overnig

US economic data is suggesting a slowing US economy, with the question about tariff-inflation unresolved. Unlike the Fed, the ECB continues to ease, lowering its policy rates 25bps on Thursday (for the 8th time). Risk markets remain relatively resilient, and bond yields improved, too. The Trump-Musk feud has grabbed headlines this week.

Moody's downgraded the US, the last of the "big three" to strip the US of its triple-A rating. I suspect a muted reaction, at least initially, in the UST market. Stocks might take it worse. I also cover Walmart and its comments on tariffs.

Four of the infamous tech giants in the Mag & report earnings today and tomorrow: MSFT, META, AMZN and AAPL. Risk is downside asymmetrical.

The first quarter was actually quite decent for me, although the start to April has been horrible since there is nowhere to hide.

Down we go in a self-inflicted mess caused by Mr Trump's errant tariff policy. I talk about trade and budget deficits, and the week ahead.

The announcement of tariffs by President Trump on Weds made a nervous market completely puke, with stocks getting hammered.

This is a very brief update for the Mag 7 stocks for 1Q2025, all of which were down, several sharply. It is not getting better either!

The 1Q2025 is in the bag, not an easy quarter. US stocks performed poorly, but gold and European stocks did well. Treasuries also did ok.

Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.

This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs

The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded

The week started and ended poorly for US stocks, delivering losses for the week. European stocks have been the best performers YtD.

DeepSeek wrecks outlook for AI companies; Mag 7 companies MSFT, META, TSLA and AAPL report earnings; FOMC expected to hold rates

This article contains an update of my 2024 portfolio performance. My returns were decent but not as good as they should have been.

Better late than never, in that this article is about my views on American exceptionalism, both economically and as far as US stocks.

This article contains a summary of full-year 2024 performance of the indices and assets tracked by EMC, plus historical data, too.

I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.