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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Feb 6, 2026: volatility dominates markets, AI capex concerns resurface
Although Friday marked an improvement in US stocks, volatility increased further last week as the ROI on A.I. spend came back into investor's focus. Rotation from tech to value has been the theme so far of 2026. Meanwhile, European and Japanese stocks again outperformed US stocks. Gold rediscovered its mojo even as Bitcoin continues to plummet. Yields were slightly improved across the UST curve, high yield spreads widened, and the greenback was better bid.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 65 min read


Week ended Dec 12, 2025: FOMC delivers as expected, A.I. bubble concerns resurface
The FOMC fell in line and served up an expected "hawkish rate cut". However, both Oracle and Broadcom – key players in the A.I. boom – saw their shares sink for different reasons, with the common denominator being A.I. valuation concerns. Yields were higher and gold rallied.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 13, 20254 min read


Week ended Sept 19, 2025: Fed cuts, stocks like it!
The Fed finally cuts the Fed Funds rate and moves to an easing path which shockingly (sarcasm), gave equity investors another reason to send stocks higher. Treasuries though said "meh", and yields even rose at the long end of the curve.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 21, 20253 min read


Week ended August 15, 2025: markets stagnate second half of week
U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 15, 20254 min read


Week ended July 11, 2025: more tariff chatter, investors say "meh"
U.S. stocks fell last week and the Dollar rose, with daily chat from the Trump Administration regarding tariffs. However, investors largely said "meh" as the Trump playbook is now heavily discounted by investors.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 12, 20254 min read


First quarter 2025 review of markets
The 1Q2025 is in the bag, not an easy quarter. US stocks performed poorly, but gold and European stocks did well. Treasuries also did ok.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 31, 20252 min read


Week ended Dec 27, 2024: more of the same
It was a relatively quiet week with holidays right in the middle of the week for many countries. Equities were better, yields were higher.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 28, 20242 min read


Week ended Dec 20, 2024: FOMC projections send markets lower
Confident that another stellar year for U.S. stocks was coming to a close, investors were jolted from their complacency when the Federal...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 21, 20245 min read


Week ended October 4, 2024: soft landing in sight
Risk remains asymmetrical to the downside, but a robust US jobs report cheered risk investors on Friday and sent UST yields sharply higher.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 5, 20245 min read
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