I started drafting this update Friday morning in London, with U.S. futures massively down.  And then – like magic – the U.S. stock market opened slightly better, bounced around all morning, and then headed higher during the afternoon.  These are crazy times!  Above are some of the headlines that have appeared the last two days in # Bloomberg and the # FT .  Over-valued equities and concerns about A.I. have been present for some time, but the last two headlines regarding cred

The melt up continued in risk markets until late Friday morning, when a post of Mr Trump's Truth Social website reported that the U.S. would impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. starting Nov 1st because of further restrictions by China on their export of critical earth minerals. In any event, this one way trajectory up needed a pause. Monday will be interesting!

Another strong quarter for investors has come and gone, with the third quarter “buy any and everything” rally carrying on as we start the...

It was a slow drift lower in US stocks and bonds this past week, although Friday's PCE (inflation, August) and other economic data was sufficiently balanced to create a slight bounce. Global stocks were mixed, with U.K. and Japanese stocks generating the best returns WoW.

The Fed finally cuts the Fed Funds rate and moves to an easing path which shockingly (sarcasm), gave equity investors another reason to send stocks higher. Treasuries though said "meh", and yields even rose at the long end of the curve.

Markets were good again this week, with stocks and bonds both increasing in spite of plenty of economic headwinds on the horizon and growing geopolitical risks. Nothing seems able to stop the momentum......until it does!

The S&P 500 hit another record high, but stock investors reacted poorly to a weaker-than-expected jobs report for August. Bonds rallied, as a slowing US economy portends a weaker labor market and potentially slack demand, setting aside concerns about long-term inflation, at least for the time being. Gold continued on its tear.

Markets largely slid sideways in the usually quiet end of the month of August. There was news though, including the last of Mag 7earnings (NVDA), political turmoil in France, PCE for July, and th usual list of Trump matters.

After drifting lower much of the week, US stocks and bonds got a significant uplift on Friday from Fed Chairman Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

The bottom line is that global stocks ended at or near record highs again, with US Treasury yields slightly higher. The BoE – after a struggle – managed to lower its policy rate. Fitch published an interesting article on tariffs, Apple CEO Tim Cook met with the president, and the recent Pivot podcast interview with Anthony Scaramucci is very interesting.

We were largely struggling but at least moving sideways until Friday, when the twin negative effects of a new tariffs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report pulled the rug from underneath investor sentiment. Risk assets faltered and safe haven assets rallied. Ouch!!

Let’s face it – nothing can slow the “risk on” sentiment currently charactering equity markets.  SPACs were the first to reappear a few...

This article is an update of my personal portfolio at the end of 1H2025 (June 30, 2025). To say it was a volatile quarter is the mother of all understatements. Fortunately, I came out OK thanks to the fact that investors – especially in the bond market – provided guardrails for the nutty economic policies of Mr Trump. I saw the train wreck coming, but I failed to anticipate the shockingly fast recovery. You can read the gory details in this article.

Concerns regarding tariffs and trade rhetoric faded a bit in the second half of the week in the U.S., which gave way to decent economic data and a strong start to the earnings season. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs (again). Yields were under modest pressure at the long end of the curve.

U.S. stocks fell last week and the Dollar rose, with daily chat from the Trump Administration regarding tariffs. However, investors largely said "meh" as the Trump playbook is now heavily discounted by investors.

Risk markets were full on this week, with nearly everything better except the sagging US Dollar and safe-haven gold. What's not to like, as peace breaks out, US economic growth signals continued strength, and the trade war continues to be watered down.

None of the three major central banks that had monetary policy meetings this week – including the Fed, the BoE and the BoJ – changed their monetary policy approach, although central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway all eased. Markets remain slightly on edge because of the growing Middle East conflict.