After drifting lower much of the week, US stocks and bonds got a significant uplift on Friday from Fed Chairman Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

The bottom line is that global stocks ended at or near record highs again, with US Treasury yields slightly higher. The BoE – after a struggle – managed to lower its policy rate. Fitch published an interesting article on tariffs, Apple CEO Tim Cook met with the president, and the recent Pivot podcast interview with Anthony Scaramucci is very interesting.

We were largely struggling but at least moving sideways until Friday, when the twin negative effects of a new tariffs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report pulled the rug from underneath investor sentiment. Risk assets faltered and safe haven assets rallied. Ouch!!

Let’s face it – nothing can slow the “risk on” sentiment currently charactering equity markets.  SPACs were the first to reappear a few...

This article is an update of my personal portfolio at the end of 1H2025 (June 30, 2025). To say it was a volatile quarter is the mother of all understatements. Fortunately, I came out OK thanks to the fact that investors – especially in the bond market – provided guardrails for the nutty economic policies of Mr Trump. I saw the train wreck coming, but I failed to anticipate the shockingly fast recovery. You can read the gory details in this article.

Concerns regarding tariffs and trade rhetoric faded a bit in the second half of the week in the U.S., which gave way to decent economic data and a strong start to the earnings season. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs (again). Yields were under modest pressure at the long end of the curve.

U.S. stocks fell last week and the Dollar rose, with daily chat from the Trump Administration regarding tariffs. However, investors largely said "meh" as the Trump playbook is now heavily discounted by investors.

Risk markets were full on this week, with nearly everything better except the sagging US Dollar and safe-haven gold. What's not to like, as peace breaks out, US economic growth signals continued strength, and the trade war continues to be watered down.

None of the three major central banks that had monetary policy meetings this week – including the Fed, the BoE and the BoJ – changed their monetary policy approach, although central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway all eased. Markets remain slightly on edge because of the growing Middle East conflict.

Inflation appears to be moderating, and the US jobs market remains resilient although perhaps showing some cracks. Mr Trump used the inflation data as a reason to justify "demanding that" the Fed slash the Fed Fund rate by 100bps. Trade policy continues to zigzag, with investors starting to mostly ignore the rhetoric coming from the administration. Stocks and bonds were better through Thursday, with gold higher and the greenback weaker. The Israeli bombing of Iran overnig

US economic data is suggesting a slowing US economy, with the question about tariff-inflation unresolved. Unlike the Fed, the ECB continues to ease, lowering its policy rates 25bps on Thursday (for the 8th time). Risk markets remain relatively resilient, and bond yields improved, too. The Trump-Musk feud has grabbed headlines this week.

This week had a double trade war "positive" for investors, excellent earnings, strong earnings and a favourable outlook from Nvidia, the 2025 Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, the release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting, and a poor Japanese 40y bond auction.

All eyes have been on the 2025-26 US budget discussions in the House this week, with the "big beautiful bill" getting through (albeit barely) and heading to the Senate. Professional bond and currency investors are signalling concern, visible in higher UST yields and a weaker US Dollar.

Moody's downgraded the US, the last of the "big three" to strip the US of its triple-A rating. I suspect a muted reaction, at least initially, in the UST market. Stocks might take it worse. I also cover Walmart and its comments on tariffs.

President Trump has been in the Middle East this week with a contingent of US business leaders and his finance / economics team, cutting...

Markets continued to stabilise this week, at least as far as risk assets including global equities and BTC. Other assets moved sideways.

Markets are at last returning to some sense of normalcy, with the S&P 500 now clawing back all of its losses since the infamous...