Stocks added to monthly gains, except in Europe where stocks lost ground. US Treasury yields were higher, as bonds lost ground. Oil prices increased double digits again, as the US-Iran conflict seems no closer to resolution.

Stocks are in a severe recovery stage, boosted further by the announcement on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was being reopened to commercial traffic. Oil prices plunged, stocks took another leg up, and yields fell across the curve. Let the good times roll.....or are things really this good?

The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday evening, not long after President Trump had warned Iran that “a civilisation will die tonight”. Perhaps this belligerent rhetoric was effective, or perhaps not. In any event, the bombing stopped – or at least most of it – on Tuesday evening as a fragile two-week ceasefire was agreed and started. US and Iranian delegations are in Islamabad this weekend negotiating what will hopefully be a permanent solution to this c

Stocks and bonds reclaimed some lost ground last week for the first time since the Iran conflict started. Eurozone flash inflation for March shows what's ahead for US inflation, with CPI set to be released Friday. However, the March jobs report suggests that the US economy remains reasonably resilient in spite of sharply higher energy prices.

Markets deteriorated further as the US threats amount to nothing more than deferred deadlines as Iran digs in its heels. Higher oil prices and an unclear picture of how this war might play out is rattling nearly all corners of the financial markets.

Global stocks and bonds continued to spiral down as the war in the Middle East continues with no end in sight. In this update, I discuss the Fed's dilemma in a stagflation scenario, and how oil prices are likely to affect both headline and cor inflation.

Investors got hammered again this week with few places to hide. Having said this, it could be worse. The Trump Administration continues to release conflicting information about the status of the war, but it is clear that the Iranians are not about to capitulate. This is causing all sorts of problems with the oil market, and this in turn is splattering both global stocks and bonds.

War breaks out with rather significant effects on the global economy, including sharply higher oil prices and increasing inflation expectations. This filtered through to stocks and bonds, both of which took a beating this week.

US stocks lost ground and are performing poorly YtD, especially compared to stocks in the UK, Europe and Japan, all of which closed at record highs on Friday. US Treasuries suddenly have a safe haven bid, with the yield on the 10y finally dropping below 4%. Gold remains strongly bid, Bitcoin remains largely without a bid.

Stocks eked out small gains and US Treasuries had small losses this past week, with plenty of economic news – especially on Friday – largely resulting in a "meh" response. European stocks closed at record highs, while gold and the greenback gained ground. Bitcoin continued to suffer losses.

I am going to start the update this week by focusing on markets, which is probably what most of my readers care most about. The table below is a summary of the week. As far as equities, portfolio allocations so far this year have favoured value stocks over growth stocks in the U.S., and international stocks over US stocks on a macro global basis. U.S. stock rotation: out of growth and into value : As far as U.S. stocks, the culprit continues to be tech shares. As the “l

Although Friday marked an improvement in US stocks, volatility increased further last week as the ROI on A.I. spend came back into investor's focus. Rotation from tech to value has been the theme so far of 2026. Meanwhile, European and Japanese stocks again outperformed US stocks. Gold rediscovered its mojo even as Bitcoin continues to plummet. Yields were slightly improved across the UST curve, high yield spreads widened, and the greenback was better bid.

Stocks and precious metals bounce around as more earnings come and go, the Fed holds rates steady as expected, and a new Fed chairman is nominated by Mr Trump.

Mr Trump was just where he wanted to be – the centre of attention at the #WEF in #Davos. Fortunately for investors, he climbed down from his "gotta have Greenland" position to reach some sort of undisclosed "deal" with the Europeans. Concurrently, JGB yields spiked with investors spoked by the budget outlook in Japan. Ultimately, US and European stocks ended the week lower, as Asian and emerging stocks drove gains. Gold continues to power ahead.

Most U.S. stock indices were weaker WoW, except for the small/mid cap Russell 2000 which has strung together some amazing gains YtD (+7.9%). Other global equity indices were generally positive. USTs lost ground, and both gold and Bitcoin pushed higher. This all happened in a backdrop in which the U.S. president introduced a series of populist and interventionist proposals that are drifting wider and wider from Republican principals.

There were more ideas coming from Mr Trump last week than seemed possible, a reflection of desperation as the affordability crisis continues to weigh on his administration and the approaching mid-term elections. Some ideas were simply ridiculous, but investors are used to it by now. This was reflected as risk markets remained solid, with several U.S. and foreign stock markets closing Friday at record highs.

The last two weeks were rather uneventful, so this is a quick summary of price performance in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. Are we in a bubble and don't know it?

Stocks were mixed last week, with European stocks turning in the best performance of the week, and Japanese stocks the worst. Tech stocks drove the NASDAQ higher, with the DJIA and Russell 2000 losing ground. Treasuries and gold were better bid. The catalysts were US economic data and several important central bank decisions, all of which were as expected. The coming weeks will be holiday-shortened.