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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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Week ended Dec 1, 2023: all systems go (for now)
There was enough sad news this week, but it certainly didn’t make a dent in sentiment as stocks and bonds continue to rally hard.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 2, 20238 min read
Week ended Nov 24, 2023: equities grind higher
Although the advance in equities slowed, it certainly did not stop even as yields pushed higher off of better-than-expected PMI data.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 25, 20235 min read
Week ended Nov 17, 2023: stocks and bonds rally
Stocks and bonds rallied hard this week, with stocks first getting a boost from better-than-expected earnings, and then by disinflation data
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 18, 20238 min read
Week ended Nov 10, 2023
US stocks were stopped in their tracks by higher yields on Thurs (poor 30y UST auction), but resumed their upward trajectory the next day.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20236 min read
Week ended Nov 3, 2023: stocks and bonds rally hard
Stocks and bonds were on fire this week, a rare occurrence recently. "Bad news is good news" resonated as data showed a slowing US economy
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 4, 20236 min read
Week ended Oct 27, 2023: stocks sink
4 big tech names report beats, but investors dig deeper and didn't love everything they saw. General downdraft hammered equities anyhow,
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 28, 20235 min read
Week ended October 20, 2023: yields spike
Yields spiked this week, one of several factors leading to a decisive risk-off feeling as equities tanked and gold roared forward.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 21, 20235 min read
Week ended October 13, 2023: reality of war sets in
A deferred reaction to war in the Middle East meant that equities rallied and bonds sold off in the first half of the week, but then......
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 14, 20233 min read
Week ended Oct 6, 2023: markets remain fragile
Markets feeling increasingly fragile as UST yields head higher and equities bounce around. Uncertainty and risks abound. Not feelin' it!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 7, 20237 min read
Week ended Sept 29, 2023 (end of 3Q)
Dismal end to a dismal quarter, with stocks down and bonds getting hammered. US govt shutdown, US housing market and UST market worries.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 30, 20237 min read
Week ended Sept 22, 2023: Central bank trifecta, recent IPOs
The central bank trifecta this week unfolded largely as expected. US bonds and equities puked on the Fed's "higher for longer".
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 23, 20236 min read
Week ended Sept 15, 2023: ARM IPO, ECB rate hike, US inflation
The ARM IPO (fair price), the ECB rate decision ("dovish increase") and US CPI are were relatively neutral to supportive this week.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 16, 20234 min read
Week ended Sept 8 2023: stocks and bonds sag (again)
Stocks and bonds sagged again this week, as overall sentiment remains fragile. Apple and corporate bond supply might have been culprits too
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 10, 20234 min read
Week ended Sept 1, 2023: Good enough
The perfect storm of economic news cheered bond and stock investors, with asset prices rising across the board in the US. RoW less clear.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 2, 20234 min read
Week ended Aug 25th 2023: Nvidia, Jackson Hole and real interest rates
Rather uneventful week in markets although equities generally better and yields a touch wider. Focus was on Jackson Hole, NVDA and rates.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 26, 20236 min read
Week ended August 18, 2023: China and USTs steal thunder
This week was quiet although the slow drift lower for equities and bonds continued. China's economy and higher UST yields were the focus.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 20, 20235 min read
Week ended August 11, 2023: rather boring
Dullsville although markets did gyrate a bit, with equities and bonds lower, the USD, credit and oil better. US inflation bang on.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 12, 20235 min read
Week ended Aug 4, 2023: It's August!
[GO STRAIGHT TO THE TABLES] We’re now into August, a normally lower-volume month, and often not the best month for equities. The table...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 6, 20234 min read
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