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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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Moral hazard following SIVB
The Fed, Treasury and FIDC took two steps last Sunday to address the SIVB situation. Are these effectively a form or moral hazard?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 15, 20237 min read
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WEEKLY: Regulatory takeover of SIVB steals the show
In a week full of economic data and news, the take-over of Silicon Valley Bank by the FDIC spurred a risk-off attitude, with USTs gaining.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 11, 20234 min read
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WEEKLY: Much ado about nothing
Earnings season ended and data was sparse. Equities rallied, gaining in the US for the first time in 4 weeks. Bond yields rose.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 4, 20234 min read
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WEEKLY: Inflation, inflation, inflation!
Inflation data weighed on markets again this week, with the S&P 500 declining for the 3rd consecutive week and UST yields pushing higher.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 25, 20234 min read
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WEEKLY: US economy running hot
The combination of the Fed's ongoing rhetoric and strong economic data finally hits home, as US stocks falter, following the UST market.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 18, 20234 min read
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WEEKLY: Fed walks back risk markets
Fed-speak undid the bond market as yields rose 20bps across the curve. NASDAQ paid the price. Oil sharply high, USD stable. FTSE 100 up.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 11, 20234 min read
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Weekend thoughts (and not good ones!)
Liz Truss went on the talk show circuit this weekend to defend her short legacy as PM, and US debt ceiling discussions dragged on. Ugh!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 6, 20234 min read
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Week ended Feb 3rd, 2023
Until the end of the week, the data and earnings were saying one thing and investors were hearing another. Markets decent though till Fri.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 5, 20234 min read
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Corporate misbehaviour and the Adani Group
Let me begin this article by acknowledging that no country is immune to corporate fraud or graft. In fact, I can think of many more...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 3, 20237 min read
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Musings to start the week
As we kick off the week with what looks like will be a weak opening in US stock and bond markets following weakness in Asian and European...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 30, 20233 min read
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WEEKLY: Risk assets head to the moon!
We are going "to the moon" across risk assets of all types. Can this continue? I'm not convinced but it's been a great start to 2023!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 28, 20234 min read
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WEEKLY: News mixed, markets skid sideways
Markets largely slid sideways this week. Large tech companies continue layoffs. Economic data suggests peak inflation has been reached.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 21, 20235 min read
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WEEKLY: Goldilocks CPI report spurs risk rally
A goldilocks CPI report for Dec cheered markets on Thurs. spurring further risk-on. Bank earnings had warnings on Friday that were ignored.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 14, 20236 min read
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US labour report stokes late-week rally (weekly update)
US markets started the year poorly, but a balanced NFP report for Dec, released Friday, cheered investors. European equities even stronger.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 7, 20233 min read
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WEEKLY: Worse than expected on declining volumes
Markets generally worse than expected on declining volumes, as we head to the holiday break. BoJ shocked markets, US PCE in-line.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 24, 20222 min read
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WEEKLY: Actions speak louder than words
The Fed, ECB and BoE all did exactly as predicted, but comments following press releases were decidedly hawkish. Markets puked on this.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 18, 20226 min read
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WEEKLY: Big week ahead, CPI and central bank meetings
Mixed week, sentiment shifters driving momentum markets. US economy continuing to show resiliency, muting the Fed's fight against inflation
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 10, 20225 min read
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WEEKLY: Didn't see that coming!
The good news is that Nov was a terrific and positive month for stocks and bonds. The bad news is inflation won't go away. Read on....
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 3, 20225 min read
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