We were largely struggling but at least moving sideways until Friday, when the twin negative effects of a new tariffs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report pulled the rug from underneath investor sentiment. Risk assets faltered and safe haven assets rallied. Ouch!!

Let’s face it – nothing can slow the “risk on” sentiment currently charactering equity markets.  SPACs were the first to reappear a few...

This article is an update of my personal portfolio at the end of 1H2025 (June 30, 2025). To say it was a volatile quarter is the mother of all understatements. Fortunately, I came out OK thanks to the fact that investors – especially in the bond market – provided guardrails for the nutty economic policies of Mr Trump. I saw the train wreck coming, but I failed to anticipate the shockingly fast recovery. You can read the gory details in this article.

U.S. stocks fell last week and the Dollar rose, with daily chat from the Trump Administration regarding tariffs. However, investors largely said "meh" as the Trump playbook is now heavily discounted by investors.

Inflation appears to be moderating, and the US jobs market remains resilient although perhaps showing some cracks. Mr Trump used the inflation data as a reason to justify "demanding that" the Fed slash the Fed Fund rate by 100bps. Trade policy continues to zigzag, with investors starting to mostly ignore the rhetoric coming from the administration. Stocks and bonds were better through Thursday, with gold higher and the greenback weaker. The Israeli bombing of Iran overnig

The first quarter was actually quite decent for me, although the start to April has been horrible since there is nowhere to hide.

Down we go in a self-inflicted mess caused by Mr Trump's errant tariff policy. I talk about trade and budget deficits, and the week ahead.

The 1Q2025 is in the bag, not an easy quarter. US stocks performed poorly, but gold and European stocks did well. Treasuries also did ok.

Most focus this week was on the FOMC decision, which was initially viewed as slightly dovish before reality sat in. Markets were mixed.