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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Week ended May 5, 2023: Now what?

Mixed data week but generally suggesting resilient US jobs market. Fed and ECB hike, Apple delivers the goods. Equities slightly weaker.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Week ended March 31, 2023

Risk markets ended a solid first quarter, as stocks and bonds rallied. The wind feels as if it is at our back as risk assets power forward.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

WEEKLY: Big week ahead, CPI and central bank meetings

Mixed week, sentiment shifters driving momentum markets. US economy continuing to show resiliency, muting the Fed's fight against inflation

tim@emorningcoffee.com

WEEKLY: Fed “talking heads” pour cold water on rally

The week could have been worse thanks to the talking heads from the Fed, but Friday saved the day. Yield curve steepens, oil prices plummet

tim@emorningcoffee.com

WEEKLY: US CPI and midterms push markets higher

FTX goes bust, US CPI suggests possible Fed pivot, and US midterms lead to the end of Dem progressive legislation. Equities & bonds rally.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

WEEKLY: Markets improve as FAMAG companies flounder

This week was mainly about earnings, including banks, FAMAG companies and oil giants. ECB and BoJ behaved as expected. US 3Q22 GDP beats.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Week ended Sept 23rd 2022

It was a horrific week brought on by central banks doing exactly what they said they were going to do. Reality is setting in and its painful

tim@emorningcoffee.com

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet

The Federal Reserve is in the early stages of reducing its balance sheet, or quantitative tightening ("QT").

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Is the bond market doing the Fed's dirty work?

The bond market looks to be doing the Fed's dirty work, sending short term yields to post-pandemic highs. Is the Fed being too methodical?

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