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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended October 17, 2025: up, down and all around
I started drafting this update Friday morning in London, with U.S. futures massively down. And then – like magic – the U.S. stock market opened slightly better, bounced around all morning, and then headed higher during the afternoon. These are crazy times! Above are some of the headlines that have appeared the last two days in # Bloomberg and the # FT . Over-valued equities and concerns about A.I. have been present for some time, but the last two headlines regarding cred

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 176 min read
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Week ended Sept 5, 2025: jobs report ends week with a thud
The S&P 500 hit another record high, but stock investors reacted poorly to a weaker-than-expected jobs report for August. Bonds rallied, as a slowing US economy portends a weaker labor market and potentially slack demand, setting aside concerns about long-term inflation, at least for the time being. Gold continued on its tear.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 73 min read
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Week ended August 29, 2025
Markets largely slid sideways in the usually quiet end of the month of August. There was news though, including the last of Mag 7earnings (NVDA), political turmoil in France, PCE for July, and th usual list of Trump matters.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 314 min read
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Week ended August 8, 2025: more record highs
The bottom line is that global stocks ended at or near record highs again, with US Treasury yields slightly higher. The BoE – after a struggle – managed to lower its policy rate. Fitch published an interesting article on tariffs, Apple CEO Tim Cook met with the president, and the recent Pivot podcast interview with Anthony Scaramucci is very interesting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 95 min read
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Week ended July 11, 2025: more tariff chatter, investors say "meh"
U.S. stocks fell last week and the Dollar rose, with daily chat from the Trump Administration regarding tariffs. However, investors largely said "meh" as the Trump playbook is now heavily discounted by investors.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 124 min read
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Week ended June 13, 2025: inflation moderates, jobs remain solid
Inflation appears to be moderating, and the US jobs market remains resilient although perhaps showing some cracks. Mr Trump used the inflation data as a reason to justify "demanding that" the Fed slash the Fed Fund rate by 100bps. Trade policy continues to zigzag, with investors starting to mostly ignore the rhetoric coming from the administration. Stocks and bonds were better through Thursday, with gold higher and the greenback weaker. The Israeli bombing of Iran overnig

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 135 min read
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Cars, tariffs and social security "fraud"
This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 197 min read
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Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 69 min read
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Does the "Trump rally" have legs?
Some stocks that clearly "track" President-elect Trump's varied campaign promises have rallied hard, including TSLA, BTC, COIN and KRE.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20245 min read
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