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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Oct 16, 2026: tech shares hammered, Treasuries rally
Old school investors “won” last week hands down. The “trendy” stock markets and indices that are concentrated in tech shares, especially semiconductor shares (e.g. the NASDAQ and Asian exchanges like the KOSPI), took it on the chin, as investors finally got skittish on the broader A.I. trade. The winners last week were what I view as the “boring places to have your money”, including US Treasuries, European stocks, and indices like the DJIA that are not heavily concentrated

tim@emorningcoffee.com
4 days ago7 min read


Portfolio update: 3Q2026
This article is an update of my personal portfolio as of Sept 30, 2026. My YtD portfolio return was 10.5%.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
6 days ago8 min read


Portfolio update: 2Q2026
This article takes a look at my portfolio performance in the second quarter 2026.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 2210 min read


Stocks - do they always go up?
This article is the third update of an article I originally penned in March 2022, examining the long-term return of US stocks. The short answer to the question "do stocks always go up" is a resounding "yes", so long as the holding period is long.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 2112 min read


Portfolio update: 1Q2026
This is an update of my 1Q2026 portfolio performance. My all-in return was nil, which was not disappointing (to me at least) given the performance of assets prices in March, following the beginning of the US-Israel war against Iran.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 167 min read


First half 2025: indices and market update
This article contains tables and commentary regarding the rather volatile but ultimately positive first half of 2025.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 4, 20256 min read


2024 market and asset performance vs my expectations: how'd I do?
I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20248 min read


Portfolio update: 1H2024
This is an update of my personal portfolio performance in 2Q2024 and 1H2024, good on the surface but worse than the indices would suggest.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 24, 20248 min read


3Q2023 portfolio update
The 3Q23 was not good for stocks and bonds, reflected in the returns in my own portfolio. But returns YtD have been decent enough.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 26, 20234 min read
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