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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Jan 2, 2026: welcome to the new year!
The last two weeks were rather uneventful, so this is a quick summary of price performance in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. Are we in a bubble and don't know it?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 43 min read
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First half 2025: indices and market update
This article contains tables and commentary regarding the rather volatile but ultimately positive first half of 2025.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 4, 20256 min read
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2024 market and asset performance vs my expectations: how'd I do?
I "guessed" at how markets would perform in 2024 last year at this time. Some I got right, some I got wrong, not different from the pros.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20248 min read
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Portfolio update: 1H2024
This is an update of my personal portfolio performance in 2Q2024 and 1H2024, good on the surface but worse than the indices would suggest.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 24, 20248 min read
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3Q2023 portfolio update
The 3Q23 was not good for stocks and bonds, reflected in the returns in my own portfolio. But returns YtD have been decent enough.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 26, 20234 min read
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The great reveal: 1H2023 update
This article is an update to an article I penned in February regarding my personal portfolio. For me, it's painful reading!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 20, 20237 min read
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The Great Reveal
Since I write a lot about markets and macroeconomic topics, it is only fair that I talk about my own investment portfolio.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 23, 20237 min read
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Stocks - do they always go up?
Stocks do not always go up over shorter periods, but they do over longer periods. This article provides empirical support, see for yourself

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 14, 20237 min read
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My 2023 year-end guesses
The Street pros provide year-end 2023 projections for stocks and bonds, so why not EMC? Here are my guesstimates and rationales.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 5, 20233 min read
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