top of page
Home: Welcome
My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

Search


Week ended March 13, 2026: war weighs on markets
Investors got hammered again this week with few places to hide. Having said this, it could be worse. The Trump Administration continues to release conflicting information about the status of the war, but it is clear that the Iranians are not about to capitulate. This is causing all sorts of problems with the oil market, and this in turn is splattering both global stocks and bonds.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
4 days ago5 min read


Week ended Feb 20th, 2026: Stocks eke out gains
Stocks eked out small gains and US Treasuries had small losses this past week, with plenty of economic news – especially on Friday – largely resulting in a "meh" response. European stocks closed at record highs, while gold and the greenback gained ground. Bitcoin continued to suffer losses.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 214 min read


Week ended Dec 5, 2025: stocks lean into economic data, bonds less so
Stocks liked the economic data that was released this week, even though it was still light on official data as the US government recovers from its recent closure. Bond investors less happy, as yields gapped higher across the curve. All eyes are now on next week's FOMC meeting, where a 25bps reduction in the Fed Funds rate looks fully priced in.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 5, 20256 min read


Week ended Sept 26, 2025: markets drift
It was a slow drift lower in US stocks and bonds this past week, although Friday's PCE (inflation, August) and other economic data was sufficiently balanced to create a slight bounce. Global stocks were mixed, with U.K. and Japanese stocks generating the best returns WoW.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 27, 20253 min read


Week ended August 29, 2025
Markets largely slid sideways in the usually quiet end of the month of August. There was news though, including the last of Mag 7earnings (NVDA), political turmoil in France, PCE for July, and th usual list of Trump matters.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 31, 20254 min read


Week ended Aug 1, 2025: more trade uncertainty, weak jobs report
We were largely struggling but at least moving sideways until Friday, when the twin negative effects of a new tariffs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report pulled the rug from underneath investor sentiment. Risk assets faltered and safe haven assets rallied. Ouch!!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 31, 20256 min read


Week ended March 28, 2025: risk markets falter after more tariffs
Mr Trump's announcement of 25% auto tariffs followed by others in the queue sent stocks spiralling down, and haven assets like gold higher.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 28, 20256 min read


Week ended August 30, 2024
Earnings and economic data (especially inflation data) continued to improve risk sentiment. The yield curve inversion ended. Dollar better

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 1, 20246 min read


BIPs, RIPs and CHIPs
Get ready for the next FOMC meeting and a market rip following the debt ceiling agreement. Want to better understand semiconductors?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 30, 20233 min read
Home: Blog2
bottom of page