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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Dec 12, 2025: FOMC delivers as expected, A.I. bubble concerns resurface
The FOMC fell in line and served up an expected "hawkish rate cut". However, both Oracle and Broadcom – key players in the A.I. boom – saw their shares sink for different reasons, with the common denominator being A.I. valuation concerns. Yields were higher and gold rallied.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 13, 20254 min read


Week ended Dec 5, 2025: stocks lean into economic data, bonds less so
Stocks liked the economic data that was released this week, even though it was still light on official data as the US government recovers from its recent closure. Bond investors less happy, as yields gapped higher across the curve. All eyes are now on next week's FOMC meeting, where a 25bps reduction in the Fed Funds rate looks fully priced in.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 5, 20256 min read


Week ended November 21, 2025: risk assets battered
The weekly update covers NVDA's excellent earnings; the A.I. shine which is wearing off; the minutes from the last FOMC meeting (Oct); and the fall of Bitcoin.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 21, 20255 min read


Week ended November 14, 2025: US government reopens
The U.S. government reopened this week although – coincidentally or not – U.S. equities swooned. The issue remains full-on valuations of U.S. stocks coupled with growing concerns with the enormous amounts of A.I. spend being put forward by many tech companies.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 15, 20256 min read


Week ended October 31, 2025:
A.I. featured large again last week, mainly because it was the key talking point as five of the Mag 7 companies released earnings with mixed results. The FOMC decision also went as expected, although Mr Powell threw some caution into the wind. Global stock markets took it in stride, but the US Treasury market was less happy as yields rose across the curve. Gold was weaker again, and the US Dollar strengthened.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 2, 20255 min read


Week ended October 24, 2025: stocks hit record highs (again)
Writing this weekly update is starting to get boring, because everything goes up every week, or so it seems. Having said that, one casualty this past week was gold, which finally seems to have come off the boil. The price of gold declined nearly 6% on Tuesday, and then stabilised but still ended down 1.8% on the week, the first weekly decline in the price of this safe haven precious metal since mid-August. All global equity indices were higher (yawn) on the week – most end

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 26, 20256 min read


Week ended October 3, 2025: everything higher again, feeling more vulnerable
Another strong quarter for investors has come and gone, with the third quarter “buy any and everything” rally carrying on as we start the...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 4, 20253 min read


Week ended Sept 19, 2025: Fed cuts, stocks like it!
The Fed finally cuts the Fed Funds rate and moves to an easing path which shockingly (sarcasm), gave equity investors another reason to send stocks higher. Treasuries though said "meh", and yields even rose at the long end of the curve.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 21, 20253 min read


Week ended August 15, 2025: markets stagnate second half of week
U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 15, 20254 min read
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