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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended November 14, 2025: US government reopens
The U.S. government reopened this week although – coincidentally or not – U.S. equities swooned. The issue remains full-on valuations of U.S. stocks coupled with growing concerns with the enormous amounts of A.I. spend being put forward by many tech companies.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 15, 20256 min read


Week ended October 31, 2025:
A.I. featured large again last week, mainly because it was the key talking point as five of the Mag 7 companies released earnings with mixed results. The FOMC decision also went as expected, although Mr Powell threw some caution into the wind. Global stock markets took it in stride, but the US Treasury market was less happy as yields rose across the curve. Gold was weaker again, and the US Dollar strengthened.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 2, 20255 min read


Week ended October 24, 2025: stocks hit record highs (again)
Writing this weekly update is starting to get boring, because everything goes up every week, or so it seems. Having said that, one casualty this past week was gold, which finally seems to have come off the boil. The price of gold declined nearly 6% on Tuesday, and then stabilised but still ended down 1.8% on the week, the first weekly decline in the price of this safe haven precious metal since mid-August. All global equity indices were higher (yawn) on the week – most end

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 26, 20256 min read


Week ended October 3, 2025: everything higher again, feeling more vulnerable
Another strong quarter for investors has come and gone, with the third quarter “buy any and everything” rally carrying on as we start the...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 4, 20253 min read


Week ended Sept 19, 2025: Fed cuts, stocks like it!
The Fed finally cuts the Fed Funds rate and moves to an easing path which shockingly (sarcasm), gave equity investors another reason to send stocks higher. Treasuries though said "meh", and yields even rose at the long end of the curve.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 21, 20253 min read


Week ended August 15, 2025: markets stagnate second half of week
U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 15, 20254 min read


Week ended August 8, 2025: more record highs
The bottom line is that global stocks ended at or near record highs again, with US Treasury yields slightly higher. The BoE – after a struggle – managed to lower its policy rate. Fitch published an interesting article on tariffs, Apple CEO Tim Cook met with the president, and the recent Pivot podcast interview with Anthony Scaramucci is very interesting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 9, 20255 min read


Week ended July 18, 2025: US economic data and corporate earnings solid
Concerns regarding tariffs and trade rhetoric faded a bit in the second half of the week in the U.S., which gave way to decent economic data and a strong start to the earnings season. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs (again). Yields were under modest pressure at the long end of the curve.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 18, 20254 min read


Week ended June 20, 2025: Fed sits tight
None of the three major central banks that had monetary policy meetings this week – including the Fed, the BoE and the BoJ – changed their monetary policy approach, although central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway all eased. Markets remain slightly on edge because of the growing Middle East conflict.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 20, 20257 min read
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