The pending IPO of Elon Musk-controlled SpaceX (symbol SPCX) is grabbing all of the headlines at the moment, and for good reason – it is not only expected to be the largest IPO ever, but also the largest company (by market cap) to ever do an IPO. The proposed offering is also unique in other ways. For starters, the IPO marketing process is unconventional. For example, the offer price per share – normally provided as a range once investor meetings are well underway – has al

Stocks were better again last week, led by European stocks. US stocks were also better in spite of a difficult start to the week, with non-tech shares leading gains. The DJIA closed at a record high. Bonds stabilised although policy-sensitive yields at the short end of the curve actually moved higher. NVDA earnings and the pending SpaceX IPO dominated the news flow.

Stocks were fine much of the week due to the ongoing "to the moon" A.I. narrative and rampant momentum buying. However, things came to a screeching halt on Friday, once the "adults in the room" (i.e. bond investors) started to run for cover with inflation soaring higher and becoming ever-more entrenched. Friday was firmly risk off, and now the question is what will happen next week? What if buy-the-dip investors go on strike? I don't even want to imagine that!!

US Treasury yields are stuck, with the 10y UST yielding just north of 4%, What might be coming next? This article presents the factors that will influence the next gap up or down in UST yields.

Writing this weekly update is starting to get boring, because everything goes up every week, or so it seems. Having said that, one casualty this past week was gold, which finally seems to have come off the boil. The price of gold declined nearly 6% on Tuesday, and then stabilised but still ended down 1.8% on the week, the first weekly decline in the price of this safe haven precious metal since mid-August. All global equity indices were higher (yawn) on the week – most end

Concerns regarding tariffs and trade rhetoric faded a bit in the second half of the week in the U.S., which gave way to decent economic data and a strong start to the earnings season. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs (again). Yields were under modest pressure at the long end of the curve.

The 1Q2025 is in the bag, not an easy quarter. US stocks performed poorly, but gold and European stocks did well. Treasuries also did ok.

Most focus this week was on the FOMC decision, which was initially viewed as slightly dovish before reality sat in. Markets were mixed.

Seven months into the year, many of my Y/E forecasts for indices and other assets look like they will be wrong. I am in good company!