I started penning this update with my recurring rant about the antics of the Trump Administration. The daily “war is over” rhetoric coming from the leader of the free world is super-annoying, especially since Iran and the U.S. remain more or less deadlocked, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and no oil flowing through it. But does this really matter anymore, at least to investors? Yes, higher oil prices are hurting consumers (see “Consumer confidence” below) and will rev

Stocks are in a severe recovery stage, boosted further by the announcement on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was being reopened to commercial traffic. Oil prices plunged, stocks took another leg up, and yields fell across the curve. Let the good times roll.....or are things really this good?

The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday evening, not long after President Trump had warned Iran that “a civilisation will die tonight”. Perhaps this belligerent rhetoric was effective, or perhaps not. In any event, the bombing stopped – or at least most of it – on Tuesday evening as a fragile two-week ceasefire was agreed and started. US and Iranian delegations are in Islamabad this weekend negotiating what will hopefully be a permanent solution to this c