The last two weeks were rather uneventful, so this is a quick summary of price performance in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. Are we in a bubble and don't know it?

The weekly update covers NVDA's excellent earnings; the A.I. shine which is wearing off; the minutes from the last FOMC meeting (Oct); and the fall of Bitcoin.

The melt up continued in risk markets until late Friday morning, when a post of Mr Trump's Truth Social website reported that the U.S. would impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. starting Nov 1st because of further restrictions by China on their export of critical earth minerals. In any event, this one way trajectory up needed a pause. Monday will be interesting!

It was a slow drift lower in US stocks and bonds this past week, although Friday's PCE (inflation, August) and other economic data was sufficiently balanced to create a slight bounce. Global stocks were mixed, with U.K. and Japanese stocks generating the best returns WoW.

The Fed finally cuts the Fed Funds rate and moves to an easing path which shockingly (sarcasm), gave equity investors another reason to send stocks higher. Treasuries though said "meh", and yields even rose at the long end of the curve.

Love it or hate it, the fact is that Tesla's stock performance has left nearly all peers – tech and automotive – in the dust. Now what?

This is an article based on correspondence with two readers, both coming to the same conclusion – the S&P 500 is going to drop further!

Given the poor performance of equities so far this year, I wanted to take a quick high level look at valuations of a number of stocks...

This article looks at recent performance of and valuation metrics of the FAMAG stocks and four others: SHOP, NVDA, TSLA and NFLX.