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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Oct 16, 2026: tech shares hammered, Treasuries rally
Old school investors “won” last week hands down. The “trendy” stock markets and indices that are concentrated in tech shares, especially semiconductor shares (e.g. the NASDAQ and Asian exchanges like the KOSPI), took it on the chin, as investors finally got skittish on the broader A.I. trade. The winners last week were what I view as the “boring places to have your money”, including US Treasuries, European stocks, and indices like the DJIA that are not heavily concentrated

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 177 min read


Week ended Oct 9, 2026: markets volatile but better
Stocks bounced around but closed the week higher, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closing at record highs on Friday. US Treasuries were ever-so-slightly better bid, with yields falling a few bps across the curve, Oil remains elevated. Gold and the US Dollar rose, while the Japanese Yen and Bitcoin fell. This week S&P 500 earnings will kick off with the six largest US banks reporting. JNJ, ASML and TSMC will also release results. The FOMC is week after next.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 114 min read


Week ended August 14, 2026: stocks mixed, bonds weaker
Stocks mixed, with Japanese and emerging markets stocks chalking up gains, while European stocks lost ground. US stocks were mixed. Yields were higher at the belly and long end of the UST curve, with inflationary expectations remaining elevated. Gold and oil were higher, the Yen and Bitcoin weaker.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 156 min read


Week ended May 15, 2026: In bonds there is truth
Stocks were fine much of the week due to the ongoing "to the moon" A.I. narrative and rampant momentum buying. However, things came to a screeching halt on Friday, once the "adults in the room" (i.e. bond investors) started to run for cover with inflation soaring higher and becoming ever-more entrenched. Friday was firmly risk off, and now the question is what will happen next week? What if buy-the-dip investors go on strike? I don't even want to imagine that!!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 167 min read


Week ended August 15, 2025: markets stagnate second half of week
U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 15, 20254 min read


Week ended March 14, 2025: markets volatile (again)
The sell-off in global equities is getting more painful, as investors continue to shun risk and pile into safe haven assets. What makes...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 15, 20255 min read


Week ended Feb 14, 2025: markets slightly better
Inflation continues to confound, although investors largely shook it off. Market volatility remains elevated but stocks better WoW.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 14, 20254 min read


Week ended July 12, 2024: stocks and bonds rip
Stocks rip and bonds rip. Small cap stocks did the best in the States while tech floundered. US CPI cooler than expected. UK growth better

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 13, 20246 min read


Week ended June 14, 2024: US inflation slows
US CPI surprised on the downside (lower than expected) this week, setting a constructive tone. The FOMC says one rate cut, Europe wobbles.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 15, 20243 min read
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