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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Update: May CPI, central bank meetings, SpaceX IPO and Social Security
"....That being said, let’s motor on to what really matters in the coming days – May CPI in the U.S. (released yesterday), upcoming central bank meetings, the SpaceX IPO which is on the launch pad (no pun intended), and U.S. social security."

tim@emorningcoffee.com
8 hours ago5 min read


Private credit: déjà vu?
This is a LONG and COMPLEX article regarding parallels between the meltdown of structured products like CDOs, CMOs and CLOs that led to the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2009, and today's current private credit market. It is not for the faint of heart, or those looking for an easy read.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 2617 min read


American Exceptionalism
Better late than never, in that this article is about my views on American exceptionalism, both economically and as far as US stocks.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 8, 202513 min read


Midweek update: Apple, CPI/FOMC, GME
We have some US data coming that might matter today (CPI), but the FOMC will sit tight (also today). Discusses Apple's run and GameStop.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 12, 20247 min read


WEEKLY: Damn glad that's over!
It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20223 min read


The Federal Reserve's balance sheet
The Federal Reserve is in the early stages of reducing its balance sheet, or quantitative tightening ("QT").

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 23, 20226 min read


FOREX
FOREX is in the news, especially as many think the USD has reached its peak and is at an inflection point. What drives FOREX? Read on.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 25, 20229 min read


The Federal Reserve and the Decade of 2010-2020
The decade 2010-20 involved a very hands-on approach by the Fed to steer the US economy out of a deep recession. What lessons can be learnt

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 10, 202214 min read


FOMO, TINA, YOLO and the Fed
Don't look to fundamentals to explain equity prices today – look to attitudes embedded in acronyms. And don't forget the super-easy Fed!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 23, 20214 min read
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