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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended August 22, 2025: Powell signals dovish tilt
After drifting lower much of the week, US stocks and bonds got a significant uplift on Friday from Fed Chairman Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 23, 20253 min read


American Exceptionalism
Better late than never, in that this article is about my views on American exceptionalism, both economically and as far as US stocks.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 8, 202513 min read


Midweek update: Apple, CPI/FOMC, GME
We have some US data coming that might matter today (CPI), but the FOMC will sit tight (also today). Discusses Apple's run and GameStop.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 12, 20247 min read


WEEKLY: Damn glad that's over!
It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20223 min read


The Federal Reserve's balance sheet
The Federal Reserve is in the early stages of reducing its balance sheet, or quantitative tightening ("QT").

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 23, 20226 min read


FOREX
FOREX is in the news, especially as many think the USD has reached its peak and is at an inflection point. What drives FOREX? Read on.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 25, 20229 min read


The Federal Reserve and the Decade of 2010-2020
The decade 2010-20 involved a very hands-on approach by the Fed to steer the US economy out of a deep recession. What lessons can be learnt

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 10, 202214 min read


FOMO, TINA, YOLO and the Fed
Don't look to fundamentals to explain equity prices today – look to attitudes embedded in acronyms. And don't forget the super-easy Fed!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 23, 20214 min read


About that transitory inflation........
I continue to believe that inflation will be transitory, but supply-push inflation will cause inflation to be higher longer.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 8, 20214 min read
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