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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Global government bonds are deteriorating fast: “it ain’t looking good!”
Politicians will not voluntarily fix sovereign debt issues because fiscal discipline loses elections. The UK and France have already run out of runway and have their backs against the wall. The US is still "kicking the can", but when $1 out of every $5 collected goes strictly to paying interest, the market will eventually force a reckoning there as well.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 56 min read


Week ended Sept 18, 2026: central banks deliver as expected
The Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan delivered monetary policy decisions largely as expected last week, soothing bond investors who remain concerned about the cost of government borrowing globally. Stocks were mostly weaker with the exception off Japanese equities and the NASDAQ.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 195 min read


Week ended Dec 27, 2024: more of the same
It was a relatively quiet week with holidays right in the middle of the week for many countries. Equities were better, yields were higher.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 28, 20242 min read


Week ended Aug 16, 2024: "everything up" week!
It was an "everything up" week, with global equities, US Treasuries, corporate bonds and gold all registering gains. Happy summer!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 17, 20244 min read


Week ended July 28, 2023: Looking good!
Bonds were battered again, but not global equities which took off like rockets. Earnings good, economic data good, etc – what's not to like

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 29, 20234 min read


WEEKLY: Damn glad that's over!
It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20223 min read


The Federal Reserve's balance sheet
The Federal Reserve is in the early stages of reducing its balance sheet, or quantitative tightening ("QT").

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 23, 20226 min read


FOREX
FOREX is in the news, especially as many think the USD has reached its peak and is at an inflection point. What drives FOREX? Read on.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 25, 20229 min read


Is the bond market doing the Fed's dirty work?
The bond market looks to be doing the Fed's dirty work, sending short term yields to post-pandemic highs. Is the Fed being too methodical?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20215 min read
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