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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Wrong (so far)....but the Street has been, too

Seven months into the year, many of my Y/E forecasts for indices and other assets look like they will be wrong. I am in good company!

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Week ended July 14, 2023: Investors party!

Stock and bond investors party hard, with equities ripping and US Treasury yields dropping sharply. A benign June CPI report was key driver

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Week ended May 5, 2023: Now what?

Mixed data week but generally suggesting resilient US jobs market. Fed and ECB hike, Apple delivers the goods. Equities slightly weaker.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Week ended March 24, 2023

Concerns about banking arguably subsided as the week wore on, with Fed and BoE rate decisions taking centre stage. Risk assets better bid.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

Week ended Feb 3rd, 2023

Until the end of the week, the data and earnings were saying one thing and investors were hearing another. Markets decent though till Fri.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

WEEKLY: Risk assets head to the moon!

We are going "to the moon" across risk assets of all types. Can this continue? I'm not convinced but it's been a great start to 2023!

tim@emorningcoffee.com

WEEKLY: Goldilocks CPI report spurs risk rally

A goldilocks CPI report for Dec cheered markets on Thurs. spurring further risk-on. Bank earnings had warnings on Friday that were ignored.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

WEEKLY: Damn glad that's over!

It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.

tim@emorningcoffee.com

WEEKLY: Actions speak louder than words

The Fed, ECB and BoE all did exactly as predicted, but comments following press releases were decidedly hawkish. Markets puked on this.

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