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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended August 22, 2025: Powell signals dovish tilt
After drifting lower much of the week, US stocks and bonds got a significant uplift on Friday from Fed Chairman Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 233 min read


Week ended August 8, 2025: more record highs
The bottom line is that global stocks ended at or near record highs again, with US Treasury yields slightly higher. The BoE – after a struggle – managed to lower its policy rate. Fitch published an interesting article on tariffs, Apple CEO Tim Cook met with the president, and the recent Pivot podcast interview with Anthony Scaramucci is very interesting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 95 min read


Week ended July 25, 2025: it was an "everything up" week (again)
Let’s face it – nothing can slow the “risk on” sentiment currently charactering equity markets. SPACs were the first to reappear a few...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 274 min read


Week ended June 27 2025: markets race ahead
Risk markets were full on this week, with nearly everything better except the sagging US Dollar and safe-haven gold. What's not to like, as peace breaks out, US economic growth signals continued strength, and the trade war continues to be watered down.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 274 min read


Week ended June 13, 2025: inflation moderates, jobs remain solid
Inflation appears to be moderating, and the US jobs market remains resilient although perhaps showing some cracks. Mr Trump used the inflation data as a reason to justify "demanding that" the Fed slash the Fed Fund rate by 100bps. Trade policy continues to zigzag, with investors starting to mostly ignore the rhetoric coming from the administration. Stocks and bonds were better through Thursday, with gold higher and the greenback weaker. The Israeli bombing of Iran overnig

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 135 min read


Week ended June 6, 2025: U.S. growth under scrutiny
US economic data is suggesting a slowing US economy, with the question about tariff-inflation unresolved. Unlike the Fed, the ECB continues to ease, lowering its policy rates 25bps on Thursday (for the 8th time). Risk markets remain relatively resilient, and bond yields improved, too. The Trump-Musk feud has grabbed headlines this week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 65 min read


Will the US dollar remain the global reserve currency?
It is fashionable to espouse the end of the US dollar as the leading global reserve currency, but this will not occur anytime soon.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 17, 20228 min read


FOMO, TINA, YOLO and the Fed
Don't look to fundamentals to explain equity prices today – look to attitudes embedded in acronyms. And don't forget the super-easy Fed!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 23, 20214 min read


Is the bond market doing the Fed's dirty work?
The bond market looks to be doing the Fed's dirty work, sending short term yields to post-pandemic highs. Is the Fed being too methodical?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20215 min read
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