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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Sept 26, 2025: markets drift
It was a slow drift lower in US stocks and bonds this past week, although Friday's PCE (inflation, August) and other economic data was sufficiently balanced to create a slight bounce. Global stocks were mixed, with U.K. and Japanese stocks generating the best returns WoW.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 273 min read
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Week ended August 8, 2025: more record highs
The bottom line is that global stocks ended at or near record highs again, with US Treasury yields slightly higher. The BoE – after a struggle – managed to lower its policy rate. Fitch published an interesting article on tariffs, Apple CEO Tim Cook met with the president, and the recent Pivot podcast interview with Anthony Scaramucci is very interesting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 95 min read
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Week ended June 13, 2025: inflation moderates, jobs remain solid
Inflation appears to be moderating, and the US jobs market remains resilient although perhaps showing some cracks. Mr Trump used the inflation data as a reason to justify "demanding that" the Fed slash the Fed Fund rate by 100bps. Trade policy continues to zigzag, with investors starting to mostly ignore the rhetoric coming from the administration. Stocks and bonds were better through Thursday, with gold higher and the greenback weaker. The Israeli bombing of Iran overnig

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 135 min read
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Portfolio update: 1Q2025
The first quarter was actually quite decent for me, although the start to April has been horrible since there is nowhere to hide.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 96 min read
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Week ended Feb 14, 2025: markets slightly better
Inflation continues to confound, although investors largely shook it off. Market volatility remains elevated but stocks better WoW.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 144 min read
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Week ended Feb 7, 2025: markets react to tariff threats, earnings and jobs
Last week was the second week running that the start of the week was characterised by turmoil, this time caused by tariff threats. Mr...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 85 min read
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Portfolio update: 4Q2024 and full year
This article contains an update of my 2024 portfolio performance. My returns were decent but not as good as they should have been.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 227 min read
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Week ended Jan 10, 2025: markets under pressure
Stock and bond markets felt fragile all week. The US Dec jobs report caused investments to gap down in price to end a difficult week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 115 min read
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Week ended Jan 3, 2025
We start 2025 with a mixed picture, not surprising in that the new year consisted of a holiday week. Friday was better in US stocks.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 52 min read
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