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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Dec 19th 2025: flawed economic data and central bank decisions
Stocks were mixed last week, with European stocks turning in the best performance of the week, and Japanese stocks the worst. Tech stocks drove the NASDAQ higher, with the DJIA and Russell 2000 losing ground. Treasuries and gold were better bid. The catalysts were US economic data and several important central bank decisions, all of which were as expected. The coming weeks will be holiday-shortened.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 20, 20254 min read


Week ended October 24, 2025: stocks hit record highs (again)
Writing this weekly update is starting to get boring, because everything goes up every week, or so it seems. Having said that, one casualty this past week was gold, which finally seems to have come off the boil. The price of gold declined nearly 6% on Tuesday, and then stabilised but still ended down 1.8% on the week, the first weekly decline in the price of this safe haven precious metal since mid-August. All global equity indices were higher (yawn) on the week – most end

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 26, 20256 min read


Week ended Sept 19, 2025: Fed cuts, stocks like it!
The Fed finally cuts the Fed Funds rate and moves to an easing path which shockingly (sarcasm), gave equity investors another reason to send stocks higher. Treasuries though said "meh", and yields even rose at the long end of the curve.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 21, 20253 min read


Week ended Aug 1, 2025: more trade uncertainty, weak jobs report
We were largely struggling but at least moving sideways until Friday, when the twin negative effects of a new tariffs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report pulled the rug from underneath investor sentiment. Risk assets faltered and safe haven assets rallied. Ouch!!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 31, 20256 min read


Week ended June 20, 2025: Fed sits tight
None of the three major central banks that had monetary policy meetings this week – including the Fed, the BoE and the BoJ – changed their monetary policy approach, although central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway all eased. Markets remain slightly on edge because of the growing Middle East conflict.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 20, 20257 min read


Week ended March 21, 2025: US stocks eke out gains
Most focus this week was on the FOMC decision, which was initially viewed as slightly dovish before reality sat in. Markets were mixed.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 22, 20255 min read


Week ended Dec 20, 2024: FOMC projections send markets lower
Confident that another stellar year for U.S. stocks was coming to a close, investors were jolted from their complacency when the Federal...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 21, 20245 min read


Week ended Nov 1, 2024: UK autumn budget, earnings, economic data
UK autumn budget, earnings galore (including five "Mag 7" companies), and gobs of economic data...just as we lead into the US election!!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 2, 20247 min read


Will the US dollar remain the global reserve currency?
It is fashionable to espouse the end of the US dollar as the leading global reserve currency, but this will not occur anytime soon.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 17, 20228 min read
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