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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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3Q2023 portfolio update
The 3Q23 was not good for stocks and bonds, reflected in the returns in my own portfolio. But returns YtD have been decent enough.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 26, 20234 min read
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Deficits spiral, Congress disappoints
The decision-making ability of Congress is poor and getting worse, just as US deficits spiral higher and higher. Something needs to be done

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 9, 20237 min read
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Guns or butter?
"Guns or butter" is a macroeconomic concept regarding govt budget allocation, but this article is about similar consumer decisions.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 20, 20235 min read
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Jobs reports: are US jobs trending in the right direction?
This article is about jobs, more specifically, what is the key data? And what does the most recent data suggest about the future?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 7, 20237 min read
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Social Security: crash and burn?
The US Social Security trust fund is expected to be depleted by 2033/4. Why, and what does this mean for me? How does Soc Security work?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 30, 20239 min read
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FitchRatings downgrades the US: does anyone care?
FitchRatings downgraded the US to AA+ on Tuesday, triggering a harsh response from the Biden Administration but nonchalance from investors.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 4, 20235 min read
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Wrong (so far)....but the Street has been, too
Seven months into the year, many of my Y/E forecasts for indices and other assets look like they will be wrong. I am in good company!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 2, 20234 min read
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The great reveal: 1H2023 update
This article is an update to an article I penned in February regarding my personal portfolio. For me, it's painful reading!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 20, 20237 min read
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OPEC+ is at it again
This past weekend, OPEC+ jumped back into action to address falling oil prices by curtailing supply. In fact, as we now have learned, it...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 6, 20234 min read
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BIPs, RIPs and CHIPs
Get ready for the next FOMC meeting and a market rip following the debt ceiling agreement. Want to better understand semiconductors?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 30, 20233 min read
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FINANCE 101: The rationale for retirement savings plans
This article discusses the rationale for establishing retirement savings, the sooner the better. Corp plans are especially attractive.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 15, 20237 min read
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Take aways from Berkshire Hathaway’s 2023 shareholder meeting
“What gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things ... In the 58 years we’ve been running Berkshire, I would say there’s...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 8, 20236 min read
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Decisions, decisions, decisions: inflation and consumer preferences
Headline inflation might be on the way down, but it is declining very slowly in the US and the EU, and remains in double-digits in the...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 2, 20236 min read
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FINANCE 101: Savings and the time value of money
This is the first of FINANCE 101 topics, a series of articles re the basics of personal investing and financial management.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 28, 20236 min read
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The US debt ceiling debacle
The debt ceiling is front & centre as the date the US Treasury runs out of cash is drawing dangerously near. Here's my two cents, enjoy!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 24, 20237 min read
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S&P 500 1Q2023: Tech stars dominate (again)
Tech companies drove the 7% return of the S&P 500 in the 1Q23. Without the "magnificent seven", the index would have been flattish.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 5, 20234 min read
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The end of Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank went from fine to dead in less than 48 hours. Why and how? Could it have been prevented? What now?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 13, 202312 min read
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Stock repurchases (thanks Mr Buffet)
In his Letter to Shareholders, Mr Buffet raised the issue of the 1% excise tax on stock repurchases, a bad idea. I think he is right!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 27, 20236 min read
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