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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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WEEKLY: Risk markets grind higher
Stocks and bonds are much better on the week, continuing a nice run in the 4Q22. The rally is broadening and orderly. Too much, too fast?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 26, 20224 min read
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BREXIT: it just won’t go away
The UK is continuing to experience a BREXIT hangover. The economy is in desperate need of help, but the Tories seem unable to move forward
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 22, 20228 min read
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WEEKLY: Fed “talking heads” pour cold water on rally
The week could have been worse thanks to the talking heads from the Fed, but Friday saved the day. Yield curve steepens, oil prices plummet
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 19, 20226 min read
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WEEKLY: US CPI and midterms push markets higher
FTX goes bust, US CPI suggests possible Fed pivot, and US midterms lead to the end of Dem progressive legislation. Equities & bonds rally.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20226 min read
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WEEKLY: Fed, BoE raise rates; US equities / bonds take it on the chin
US equities and bonds get crushed, other global equity markets improve. USTs weaker, gold rallies, oil up and USD lower. Fed, BoE raise.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 5, 20227 min read
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WEEKLY: Markets improve as FAMAG companies flounder
This week was mainly about earnings, including banks, FAMAG companies and oil giants. ECB and BoJ behaved as expected. US 3Q22 GDP beats.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 29, 20226 min read
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Week ended Oct 21, 2022
Headlines says it all. More turmoil in U.K. politics (and 10.1% CPI). Decent S&P 500 earnings, TSLA and SNAP disappoint. Yen softens.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 22, 20226 min read
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Week ended Oct 14, 2022
The Truss government takes a U-Turn and throws Kwarteng under the bus, and US equities experience unusual volatility following hot CPI.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 15, 20226 min read
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Bloomberg Invest New York (Oct 12-13, 2022)
The two-day Bloomberg event featured a variety of speakers covering a broad cross-section of topics relevant today.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 13, 20228 min read
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Week ended Oct 7 2022
Markets were up on bad economic news, and then faltered on good economic news. The narrative of a Fed pivot won't go away.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 8, 20227 min read
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Week Ended Sept 30th, 2022
The week, month and quarter was simply a disaster for both equity and bond investors globally, there was simply nowhere to hide except cash.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 1, 20226 min read
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Week ended Sept 23rd 2022
It was a horrific week brought on by central banks doing exactly what they said they were going to do. Reality is setting in and its painful
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 24, 20227 min read
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Week ended Sept 16th 2022
Not a good week at all for most asset classes, with the culprit being worst-than-expected CPI in the US. Economic data weak elsewhere too.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 17, 20226 min read
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Week ended Sept 9, 2022
The Labor Day holiday in the US on Monday and the Queen's death on Thursday framed the week, with risk assets rallying strongly on Friday.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 10, 20227 min read
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Week ended Sept 2nd 2022
August was a month of two halves, with unfortunately the second half being a reversal of fortune and a massive fade heading into Sept. Ugh!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 3, 20226 min read
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Week ended August 26th 2022
At the economic symposium, Fed chair Powell presented a committed focus to snuff out inflation. Global growth is slowing, inflation high.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 27, 20228 min read
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Week ended August 19th 2022
Friday was a down day in US equities and bonds. Was it an anomaly or is reality setting back in? 2y Gilt yields also were sharply higher.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 20, 20225 min read
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Week ended August 12, 2022
Disinflation at last, markets rejoice [SKIP THE COMMENTARY AND GO STRAIGHT TO THE TABLES] SUMMARY OF MARKETS All it took for US equity...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 13, 20225 min read
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