Stocks and bonds diverged last week, as volatility kicked into high gear especially around semi-conductor stocks. Yields came in across the curve as long term inflation expectations subsided. Gold and Bitcoin lost ground, and the US Dollar continued to grind higher.

Stocks were better again last week, led by European stocks. US stocks were also better in spite of a difficult start to the week, with non-tech shares leading gains. The DJIA closed at a record high. Bonds stabilised although policy-sensitive yields at the short end of the curve actually moved higher. NVDA earnings and the pending SpaceX IPO dominated the news flow.

Stocks added to monthly gains, except in Europe where stocks lost ground. US Treasury yields were higher, as bonds lost ground. Oil prices increased double digits again, as the US-Iran conflict seems no closer to resolution.

The last two weeks were rather uneventful, so this is a quick summary of price performance in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. Are we in a bubble and don't know it?

Stocks liked the economic data that was released this week, even though it was still light on official data as the US government recovers from its recent closure. Bond investors less happy, as yields gapped higher across the curve. All eyes are now on next week's FOMC meeting, where a 25bps reduction in the Fed Funds rate looks fully priced in.

Writing this weekly update is starting to get boring, because everything goes up every week, or so it seems. Having said that, one casualty this past week was gold, which finally seems to have come off the boil. The price of gold declined nearly 6% on Tuesday, and then stabilised but still ended down 1.8% on the week, the first weekly decline in the price of this safe haven precious metal since mid-August. All global equity indices were higher (yawn) on the week – most end

We're up, we're down, we're all around! US stocks remain volatile but ended higher. Bonds are the "adult in the room" though.

Equities better bid in a holiday-shortened week, one void of meaningful economic data and the last serious tranche of earnings.

Equities were mixed, UST yields were tighter across the curve. Politics garnered most attention this week, plus an ECB decision.