Global stocks and bonds continued to spiral down as the war in the Middle East continues with no end in sight. In this update, I discuss the Fed's dilemma in a stagflation scenario, and how oil prices are likely to affect both headline and cor inflation.

Investors got hammered again this week with few places to hide. Having said this, it could be worse. The Trump Administration continues to release conflicting information about the status of the war, but it is clear that the Iranians are not about to capitulate. This is causing all sorts of problems with the oil market, and this in turn is splattering both global stocks and bonds.

War breaks out with rather significant effects on the global economy, including sharply higher oil prices and increasing inflation expectations. This filtered through to stocks and bonds, both of which took a beating this week.

US stocks lost ground and are performing poorly YtD, especially compared to stocks in the UK, Europe and Japan, all of which closed at record highs on Friday. US Treasuries suddenly have a safe haven bid, with the yield on the 10y finally dropping below 4%. Gold remains strongly bid, Bitcoin remains largely without a bid.

Stocks eked out small gains and US Treasuries had small losses this past week, with plenty of economic news – especially on Friday – largely resulting in a "meh" response. European stocks closed at record highs, while gold and the greenback gained ground. Bitcoin continued to suffer losses.

I am going to start the update this week by focusing on markets, which is probably what most of my readers care most about. The table below is a summary of the week. As far as equities, portfolio allocations so far this year have favoured value stocks over growth stocks in the U.S., and international stocks over US stocks on a macro global basis. U.S. stock rotation: out of growth and into value : As far as U.S. stocks, the culprit continues to be tech shares. As the “l

Although Friday marked an improvement in US stocks, volatility increased further last week as the ROI on A.I. spend came back into investor's focus. Rotation from tech to value has been the theme so far of 2026. Meanwhile, European and Japanese stocks again outperformed US stocks. Gold rediscovered its mojo even as Bitcoin continues to plummet. Yields were slightly improved across the UST curve, high yield spreads widened, and the greenback was better bid.

Stocks and precious metals bounce around as more earnings come and go, the Fed holds rates steady as expected, and a new Fed chairman is nominated by Mr Trump.

Mr Trump was just where he wanted to be – the centre of attention at the #WEF in #Davos. Fortunately for investors, he climbed down from his "gotta have Greenland" position to reach some sort of undisclosed "deal" with the Europeans. Concurrently, JGB yields spiked with investors spoked by the budget outlook in Japan. Ultimately, US and European stocks ended the week lower, as Asian and emerging stocks drove gains. Gold continues to power ahead.