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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Sept 19, 2025: Fed cuts, stocks like it!
The Fed finally cuts the Fed Funds rate and moves to an easing path which shockingly (sarcasm), gave equity investors another reason to send stocks higher. Treasuries though said "meh", and yields even rose at the long end of the curve.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 213 min read


Week ended Sept 12, 2025: FOMC rate cut coming
Markets were good again this week, with stocks and bonds both increasing in spite of plenty of economic headwinds on the horizon and growing geopolitical risks. Nothing seems able to stop the momentum......until it does!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 124 min read


Week ended Sept 5, 2025: jobs report ends week with a thud
The S&P 500 hit another record high, but stock investors reacted poorly to a weaker-than-expected jobs report for August. Bonds rallied, as a slowing US economy portends a weaker labor market and potentially slack demand, setting aside concerns about long-term inflation, at least for the time being. Gold continued on its tear.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 73 min read


Week ended August 29, 2025
Markets largely slid sideways in the usually quiet end of the month of August. There was news though, including the last of Mag 7earnings (NVDA), political turmoil in France, PCE for July, and th usual list of Trump matters.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 314 min read


Week ended August 22, 2025: Powell signals dovish tilt
After drifting lower much of the week, US stocks and bonds got a significant uplift on Friday from Fed Chairman Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 233 min read


Week ended August 15, 2025: markets stagnate second half of week
U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 154 min read


Week ended August 8, 2025: more record highs
The bottom line is that global stocks ended at or near record highs again, with US Treasury yields slightly higher. The BoE – after a struggle – managed to lower its policy rate. Fitch published an interesting article on tariffs, Apple CEO Tim Cook met with the president, and the recent Pivot podcast interview with Anthony Scaramucci is very interesting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 95 min read


Week ended Aug 1, 2025: more trade uncertainty, weak jobs report
We were largely struggling but at least moving sideways until Friday, when the twin negative effects of a new tariffs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report pulled the rug from underneath investor sentiment. Risk assets faltered and safe haven assets rallied. Ouch!!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 316 min read


Week ended July 25, 2025: it was an "everything up" week (again)
Let’s face it – nothing can slow the “risk on” sentiment currently charactering equity markets. SPACs were the first to reappear a few...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 274 min read
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