tim@emorningcoffee.com
Musings to start the week (and it's all about banks)
UBS was seemingly strong-armed into a stock-for-stock acquisition of CS, ending that saga. What does this mean for global banking system?
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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
- 2 days ago
- 5 min
Week ended March 17, 2023
Bank concerns continue even as solutions were put forth for First Republic and CS. NASDAQ and Bitcoin rally, other markets signal risk off
310
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- 5 days ago
- 7 min
Moral hazard following SIVB
The Fed, Treasury and FIDC took two steps last Sunday to address the SIVB situation. Are these effectively a form or moral hazard?
440
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Mar 13
- 12 min
The end of Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank went from fine to dead in less than 48 hours. Why and how? Could it have been prevented? What now?
1350
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Mar 11
- 4 min
WEEKLY: Regulatory takeover of SIVB steals the show
In a week full of economic data and news, the take-over of Silicon Valley Bank by the FDIC spurred a risk-off attitude, with USTs gaining.
360
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Mar 4
- 4 min
WEEKLY: Much ado about nothing
Earnings season ended and data was sparse. Equities rallied, gaining in the US for the first time in 4 weeks. Bond yields rose.
190
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Feb 27
- 6 min
Stock repurchases (thanks Mr Buffet)
In his Letter to Shareholders, Mr Buffet raised the issue of the 1% excise tax on stock repurchases, a bad idea. I think he is right!
310
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Feb 23
- 7 min
The Great Reveal
Since I write a lot about markets and macroeconomic topics, it is only fair that I talk about my own investment portfolio.
1461
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Feb 14
- 7 min
Stocks - do they always go up?
Stocks do not always go up over shorter periods, but they do over longer periods. This article provides empirical support, see for yourself
1340
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Feb 8
- 5 min
Earnings (so far): good or bad?
Earnings for S&P 500 companies have been "better-than-expected" so far. Does this tell the whole story? Stocks are ripping anyway!
340
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Jan 27
- 4 min
Economic outlook vs stock prices
Economic data is mixed. Cautious corporate and cautious bank outlooks are causing anxiety, but are not keeping stock markets from rallying
440
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Jan 23
- 2 min
FAMAG (+TSLA) quarterly earnings: everything you need to know
The five mega-tech FAMAG names start reporting their quarterly earnings ended Dec 30th, 2022, this week. I also included TSLA.
370
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Jan 5
- 3 min
My 2023 year-end guesses
The Street pros provide year-end 2023 projections for stocks and bonds, so why not EMC? Here are my guesstimates and rationales.
670
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Dec 31, 2022
- 3 min
WEEKLY: Damn glad that's over!
It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.
422
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Dec 22, 2022
- 10 min
Predicting stock prices: 2023
The consensus view is that stocks will rise modestly in 2023. History has proven one thing – analysts will be wrong!
970
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Dec 12, 2022
- 2 min
The Fed, Bank of England and ECB: monetary policy decisions
This week we have monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the Bank of England and the ECB, the last of the year. This provides context.
590
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Nov 8, 2022
- 7 min
Windfall taxes are a stupid idea
Windfall taxes are economically stupid, which might be why politicians seem to like the idea so much. Banks and energy companies are at risk
660
tim@emorningcoffee.com
- Oct 4, 2022
- 5 min
Fine wine – an alternative asset for all seasons
As traditional asset classes get ever-more turbulent, alternative assets become ever-more attractive. This article is about fine wine.
1580
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