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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended June 13, 2025: inflation moderates, jobs remain solid
Inflation appears to be moderating, and the US jobs market remains resilient although perhaps showing some cracks. Mr Trump used the inflation data as a reason to justify "demanding that" the Fed slash the Fed Fund rate by 100bps. Trade policy continues to zigzag, with investors starting to mostly ignore the rhetoric coming from the administration. Stocks and bonds were better through Thursday, with gold higher and the greenback weaker. The Israeli bombing of Iran overnig

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 135 min read
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Week ended June 6, 2025: U.S. growth under scrutiny
US economic data is suggesting a slowing US economy, with the question about tariff-inflation unresolved. Unlike the Fed, the ECB continues to ease, lowering its policy rates 25bps on Thursday (for the 8th time). Risk markets remain relatively resilient, and bond yields improved, too. The Trump-Musk feud has grabbed headlines this week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 65 min read
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Week ended May 23, 2025: all eyes on US budget
All eyes have been on the 2025-26 US budget discussions in the House this week, with the "big beautiful bill" getting through (albeit barely) and heading to the Senate. Professional bond and currency investors are signalling concern, visible in higher UST yields and a weaker US Dollar.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 237 min read
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Week ended May 9, 2025: Trump says "buy stocks" (again)
Markets continued to stabilise this week, at least as far as risk assets including global equities and BTC. Other assets moved sideways.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 86 min read
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Week ended May 2, 2025: Risk is back on!
Markets are at last returning to some sense of normalcy, with the S&P 500 now clawing back all of its losses since the infamous...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 36 min read
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Mag 7 stocks, earnings, "hands off" the Fed and Jeffrey Sachs at ADF
Quick look to start the week with earnings, including TSLA and GOOG, Jeffrey Sachs explaining poor Trump policies and the Fed's independence

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 224 min read
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Week ended April 18, 2025
There will be no "Fed put" according to Mr Powell, which rattled markets and evoked a response from Mr Trump. US equities slumped again.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 195 min read
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Week ended April 11, 2025: Bonds speak the truth
We're up, we're down, we're all around! US stocks remain volatile but ended higher. Bonds are the "adult in the room" though.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 126 min read
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Portfolio update: 1Q2025
The first quarter was actually quite decent for me, although the start to April has been horrible since there is nowhere to hide.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 96 min read
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