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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Feb 20th, 2026: Stocks eke out gains
Stocks eked out small gains and US Treasuries had small losses this past week, with plenty of economic news – especially on Friday – largely resulting in a "meh" response. European stocks closed at record highs, while gold and the greenback gained ground. Bitcoin continued to suffer losses.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 214 min read


10% cap on credit card interest: a very bad idea!
President Trump has shown his populist colours by jumping on board a liberal proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. This makes no sense! And it looks to be going nowhere fast.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 296 min read


Week ended October 10th, 2025
The melt up continued in risk markets until late Friday morning, when a post of Mr Trump's Truth Social website reported that the U.S. would impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. starting Nov 1st because of further restrictions by China on their export of critical earth minerals. In any event, this one way trajectory up needed a pause. Monday will be interesting!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 11, 20255 min read


Week ended Sept 5, 2025: jobs report ends week with a thud
The S&P 500 hit another record high, but stock investors reacted poorly to a weaker-than-expected jobs report for August. Bonds rallied, as a slowing US economy portends a weaker labor market and potentially slack demand, setting aside concerns about long-term inflation, at least for the time being. Gold continued on its tear.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 7, 20253 min read


NATO
NATO was front and centre last week as the annual NATO Summit was held in The Hague on Tuesday and Wednesday, making it an opportune time...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 2, 20257 min read


Week ended Mar 7, 2025: markets continue to spiral down
Tariffs followed by partial capitulation, a strategic crypto reserve, and further erosion in markets summed up another tumultuous week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 7, 20255 min read


Week ended Feb 14, 2025: markets slightly better
Inflation continues to confound, although investors largely shook it off. Market volatility remains elevated but stocks better WoW.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 15, 20254 min read


Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 6, 20259 min read


Week ended Jan 24, 2025: Mr Trump's first week in office
US markets responded favourably to new President Donald Trump’s first week in office, with bond yields holding steady and stock indices...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 25, 20254 min read
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