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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended October 10th, 2025
The melt up continued in risk markets until late Friday morning, when a post of Mr Trump's Truth Social website reported that the U.S. would impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. starting Nov 1st because of further restrictions by China on their export of critical earth minerals. In any event, this one way trajectory up needed a pause. Monday will be interesting!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 115 min read
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Week ended Sept 5, 2025: jobs report ends week with a thud
The S&P 500 hit another record high, but stock investors reacted poorly to a weaker-than-expected jobs report for August. Bonds rallied, as a slowing US economy portends a weaker labor market and potentially slack demand, setting aside concerns about long-term inflation, at least for the time being. Gold continued on its tear.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 73 min read
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NATO
NATO was front and centre last week as the annual NATO Summit was held in The Hague on Tuesday and Wednesday, making it an opportune time...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 27 min read
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Week ended Mar 7, 2025: markets continue to spiral down
Tariffs followed by partial capitulation, a strategic crypto reserve, and further erosion in markets summed up another tumultuous week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 75 min read
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Week ended Feb 14, 2025: markets slightly better
Inflation continues to confound, although investors largely shook it off. Market volatility remains elevated but stocks better WoW.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 154 min read
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Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 69 min read
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Week ended Jan 24, 2025: Mr Trump's first week in office
US markets responded favourably to new President Donald Trump’s first week in office, with bond yields holding steady and stock indices...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 254 min read
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Week ended Jan 17, 2025: markets recover
Global equities staged a nice rally last week, and government bond yields fell in the US and UK. Oil, gold and Bitcoin were all higher.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 182 min read
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"Pardon Me"
To my knowledge there has never been a pre-emptive self-pardon, so this will certainly be breaking new ground.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 8, 202010 min read
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