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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended July 10, 2026: stocks and bonds diverge (again)
US stocks were mixed but tech continued to be the driver. US bonds did less well, as yields moved higher across the curve. Global stocks were generally weaker, as oil inched higher due to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East with the Strait of Hormuz again the focal point.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 114 min read


Week ended May 8, 2026: market remains constructive
I started penning this update with my recurring rant about the antics of the Trump Administration. The daily “war is over” rhetoric coming from the leader of the free world is super-annoying, especially since Iran and the U.S. remain more or less deadlocked, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and no oil flowing through it. But does this really matter anymore, at least to investors? Yes, higher oil prices are hurting consumers (see “Consumer confidence” below) and will rev

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 96 min read


Week ended Jan 9, 2026: stocks close at record highs
There were more ideas coming from Mr Trump last week than seemed possible, a reflection of desperation as the affordability crisis continues to weigh on his administration and the approaching mid-term elections. Some ideas were simply ridiculous, but investors are used to it by now. This was reflected as risk markets remained solid, with several U.S. and foreign stock markets closing Friday at record highs.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 105 min read


Week ended June 27 2025: markets race ahead
Risk markets were full on this week, with nearly everything better except the sagging US Dollar and safe-haven gold. What's not to like, as peace breaks out, US economic growth signals continued strength, and the trade war continues to be watered down.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 27, 20254 min read


Week ended Dec 6, 2024: risk markets and USTs better, Bitcoin soars to record
Stocks reached more record highs in the US, but Asian and European stocks outperformed. UST yields slightly lower. Bitcoin soars to record

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 7, 20247 min read


Week ended Sept 20, 2024: central bank decisions feature
Last week was mainly about a trifecta of central bank decisions, with most attention focused on the Fed. The Fed Funds rate was reduced .50%

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 21, 20247 min read


Week ended Sept 13, 2024: it was an "everything up" week
It was one of those weeks that if you didn't chalk up portfolio gains, it would be difficult to figure out why. Bonds and stocks rallied.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 14, 20246 min read


Week ended June 28, 2024: Geopolitics dominate, markets lacklustre
The news narrative was dominated by elections in the UK and France, and the first Biden-Trump debate. Markets were lacklustre to close 1H24

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 30, 20245 min read


Oil update: prices skyrocket
With oil approaching $100/bbl, it is hard to imagine that demand and supply were so out of line in April 2020 that oil prices went negative!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 24, 20227 min read
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