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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended June 6, 2025: U.S. growth under scrutiny
US economic data is suggesting a slowing US economy, with the question about tariff-inflation unresolved. Unlike the Fed, the ECB continues to ease, lowering its policy rates 25bps on Thursday (for the 8th time). Risk markets remain relatively resilient, and bond yields improved, too. The Trump-Musk feud has grabbed headlines this week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 65 min read
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Week ended October 4, 2024: soft landing in sight
Risk remains asymmetrical to the downside, but a robust US jobs report cheered risk investors on Friday and sent UST yields sharply higher.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 5, 20245 min read
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Week ended May 3, 2024
Earnings and economic data were all relatively to the liking of equity and bond investors alike, providing a boost for assets last week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 4, 20245 min read
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Week ended Feb 2, 2024: Earnings, Fed and US jobs
Last week dominated by five "Mag 7" companies that reported earnings (mixed bag), Fed and BoE monetary policy meetings, and economic data.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 3, 20246 min read
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Jobs reports: are US jobs trending in the right direction?
This article is about jobs, more specifically, what is the key data? And what does the most recent data suggest about the future?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 7, 20237 min read
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Week ended Sept 1, 2023: Good enough
The perfect storm of economic news cheered bond and stock investors, with asset prices rising across the board in the US. RoW less clear.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 2, 20234 min read
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Week ended July 7, 2022: US jobs solid, equities and bonds drift lower
US jobs data was sufficiently solid, largely as expected, that it wrecked the recent rally in stocks. UST yields were sent higher, too.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 8, 20235 min read
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Week ended June 2, 2023
Debt ceiling done as attention turns to the Fed's next move. US jobs data continues to suggest resiliency, and equities are liking it.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 3, 20234 min read
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Week ended April 1st 2022
Oil settles, inflation rages, Ukraine-Russia war drags on. The result? Equities rally, Treasuries get hammered. The yield curve inverts.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 3, 20228 min read
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