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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Oct 16, 2026: tech shares hammered, Treasuries rally
Old school investors “won” last week hands down. The “trendy” stock markets and indices that are concentrated in tech shares, especially semiconductor shares (e.g. the NASDAQ and Asian exchanges like the KOSPI), took it on the chin, as investors finally got skittish on the broader A.I. trade. The winners last week were what I view as the “boring places to have your money”, including US Treasuries, European stocks, and indices like the DJIA that are not heavily concentrated

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 177 min read


Update: May CPI, central bank meetings, SpaceX IPO and Social Security
"....That being said, let’s motor on to what really matters in the coming days – May CPI in the U.S. (released yesterday), upcoming central bank meetings, the SpaceX IPO which is on the launch pad (no pun intended), and U.S. social security."

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 115 min read


Stocks - do they always go up?
This article is the third update of an article I originally penned in March 2022, examining the long-term return of US stocks. The short answer to the question "do stocks always go up" is a resounding "yes", so long as the holding period is long.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 2112 min read


The K-shaped economy and affordability
This is a short article about the K-shaped economy, driven by persistently high inflation and exacerbated by the errant "One, Big Beautiful Bill".

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 75 min read


U.S. Treasury Yields: what's next?
US Treasury yields are stuck, with the 10y UST yielding just north of 4%, What might be coming next? This article presents the factors that will influence the next gap up or down in UST yields.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 13, 20257 min read


"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 26, 20256 min read


The US election: things you should know
Here are a few last-minute thoughts on the US election which will be held on Tuesday, Nov 5. A lot is at stake, but Weds, the world goes on

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 3, 20244 min read


Spending your retirement savings
I wrote about portfolio allocation pre-retirement a few weeks ago. This article is about “sizing” your drawdowns after you retire.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 7, 20238 min read


Guns or butter?
"Guns or butter" is a macroeconomic concept regarding govt budget allocation, but this article is about similar consumer decisions.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 20, 20235 min read
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