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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended July 31, 2026: volatile month draws to a close
A volatile month draws to a close, with global bond yields higher as inflation expectations remain elevated. With no sign of the end of the Middle East conflict, investors very much remain on edge. Ongoing concerns regarding A.I. spending are also weighing on sentiment.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 16 min read


Update: May CPI, central bank meetings, SpaceX IPO and Social Security
"....That being said, let’s motor on to what really matters in the coming days – May CPI in the U.S. (released yesterday), upcoming central bank meetings, the SpaceX IPO which is on the launch pad (no pun intended), and U.S. social security."

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 115 min read


Stocks - do they always go up?
This article is the third update of an article I originally penned in March 2022, examining the long-term return of US stocks. The short answer to the question "do stocks always go up" is a resounding "yes", so long as the holding period is long.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 2112 min read


The K-shaped economy and affordability
This is a short article about the K-shaped economy, driven by persistently high inflation and exacerbated by the errant "One, Big Beautiful Bill".

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 75 min read


U.S. Treasury Yields: what's next?
US Treasury yields are stuck, with the 10y UST yielding just north of 4%, What might be coming next? This article presents the factors that will influence the next gap up or down in UST yields.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 13, 20257 min read


"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 26, 20256 min read


The US election: things you should know
Here are a few last-minute thoughts on the US election which will be held on Tuesday, Nov 5. A lot is at stake, but Weds, the world goes on

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 3, 20244 min read


Spending your retirement savings
I wrote about portfolio allocation pre-retirement a few weeks ago. This article is about “sizing” your drawdowns after you retire.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 7, 20238 min read


Guns or butter?
"Guns or butter" is a macroeconomic concept regarding govt budget allocation, but this article is about similar consumer decisions.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 20, 20235 min read
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