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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended Oct 16, 2026: tech shares hammered, Treasuries rally
Old school investors “won” last week hands down. The “trendy” stock markets and indices that are concentrated in tech shares, especially semiconductor shares (e.g. the NASDAQ and Asian exchanges like the KOSPI), took it on the chin, as investors finally got skittish on the broader A.I. trade. The winners last week were what I view as the “boring places to have your money”, including US Treasuries, European stocks, and indices like the DJIA that are not heavily concentrated

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 177 min read


Week ended Oct 9, 2026: markets volatile but better
Stocks bounced around but closed the week higher, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closing at record highs on Friday. US Treasuries were ever-so-slightly better bid, with yields falling a few bps across the curve, Oil remains elevated. Gold and the US Dollar rose, while the Japanese Yen and Bitcoin fell. This week S&P 500 earnings will kick off with the six largest US banks reporting. JNJ, ASML and TSMC will also release results. The FOMC is week after next.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 114 min read


Week ended August 14, 2026: stocks mixed, bonds weaker
Stocks mixed, with Japanese and emerging markets stocks chalking up gains, while European stocks lost ground. US stocks were mixed. Yields were higher at the belly and long end of the UST curve, with inflationary expectations remaining elevated. Gold and oil were higher, the Yen and Bitcoin weaker.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 156 min read


Update: May CPI, central bank meetings, SpaceX IPO and Social Security
"....That being said, let’s motor on to what really matters in the coming days – May CPI in the U.S. (released yesterday), upcoming central bank meetings, the SpaceX IPO which is on the launch pad (no pun intended), and U.S. social security."

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 115 min read


Week ended May 15, 2026: In bonds there is truth
Stocks were fine much of the week due to the ongoing "to the moon" A.I. narrative and rampant momentum buying. However, things came to a screeching halt on Friday, once the "adults in the room" (i.e. bond investors) started to run for cover with inflation soaring higher and becoming ever-more entrenched. Friday was firmly risk off, and now the question is what will happen next week? What if buy-the-dip investors go on strike? I don't even want to imagine that!!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 167 min read


Week ended March 13, 2026: war weighs on markets
Investors got hammered again this week with few places to hide. Having said this, it could be worse. The Trump Administration continues to release conflicting information about the status of the war, but it is clear that the Iranians are not about to capitulate. This is causing all sorts of problems with the oil market, and this in turn is splattering both global stocks and bonds.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 135 min read


Week ended October 24, 2025: stocks hit record highs (again)
Writing this weekly update is starting to get boring, because everything goes up every week, or so it seems. Having said that, one casualty this past week was gold, which finally seems to have come off the boil. The price of gold declined nearly 6% on Tuesday, and then stabilised but still ended down 1.8% on the week, the first weekly decline in the price of this safe haven precious metal since mid-August. All global equity indices were higher (yawn) on the week – most end

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 26, 20256 min read


Week ended Sept 12, 2025: FOMC rate cut coming
Markets were good again this week, with stocks and bonds both increasing in spite of plenty of economic headwinds on the horizon and growing geopolitical risks. Nothing seems able to stop the momentum......until it does!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 12, 20254 min read


Midweek update: Apple, CPI/FOMC, GME
We have some US data coming that might matter today (CPI), but the FOMC will sit tight (also today). Discusses Apple's run and GameStop.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 12, 20247 min read
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