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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended October 10th, 2025
The melt up continued in risk markets until late Friday morning, when a post of Mr Trump's Truth Social website reported that the U.S. would impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. starting Nov 1st because of further restrictions by China on their export of critical earth minerals. In any event, this one way trajectory up needed a pause. Monday will be interesting!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
6 days ago5 min read
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Week ended August 15, 2025: markets stagnate second half of week
U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 154 min read
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Week ended May 16, 2025: What caught my eye this week
President Trump has been in the Middle East this week with a contingent of US business leaders and his finance / economics team, cutting...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 158 min read
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Balance of payments, trade and tariffs
The week started with the Trump Administration announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, the first two of which were quickly rescinded

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 69 min read
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Week ended October 18, 2024: more records
US stocks and gold hit more record highs. S&P 500 earnings mixed: banks strong, chip companies mixed, luxury struggles.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 19, 20245 min read
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Week ended Oct 11, 2024: more record highs for US stocks
CPI slightly hotter than expected, and earnings off to a good start. Yields continue to back up, US stocks at record high close.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 12, 20245 min read
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Week ended October 4, 2024: soft landing in sight
Risk remains asymmetrical to the downside, but a robust US jobs report cheered risk investors on Friday and sent UST yields sharply higher.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 5, 20245 min read
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Some investment "thoughts" to start off the new year
2023 was an amazing year for nearly all traditional asset classes around the world. Can this carry-on? This article covers my thoughts.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 2, 202431 min read
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2022 so far: not a year to remember for investors!
2022 has been an abysmal year for most indices and asset classes globally, with the exceptions being oil, gold and the FTSE 100. Now what?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 7, 20228 min read
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