The last two weeks were rather uneventful, so this is a quick summary of price performance in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. Are we in a bubble and don't know it?

Risk assets recovered strongly during the holiday-shortened (US Thanksgiving) session, with U.S. stocks leading the way. Japanese and European stocks rallied too. Bitcoin recovered slightly, and gold was higher. The catalyst was mainly growing expectations that the Fed would lower its policy rate at the December FOMC meeting. In the UK, chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the tax-fuelled budget.

There are no shortage of investors which think stocks are well over-baked, especially stocks of companies that are directly or indirectly associated with the ongoing A.I. hype.  It has appeared for weeks that this was nothing more than scaremongering as stocks continued their stratospheric rise.  However, the past week saw scepticism start to set in as investor concerns regarding valuations broadened.  Tech stocks led the sell-off, although there were few places to hide as mo

A.I. featured large again last week, mainly because it was the key talking point as five of the Mag 7 companies released earnings with mixed results. The FOMC decision also went as expected, although Mr Powell threw some caution into the wind. Global stock markets took it in stride, but the US Treasury market was less happy as yields rose across the curve. Gold was weaker again, and the US Dollar strengthened.

I started drafting this update Friday morning in London, with U.S. futures massively down.  And then – like magic – the U.S. stock market opened slightly better, bounced around all morning, and then headed higher during the afternoon.  These are crazy times!  Above are some of the headlines that have appeared the last two days in # Bloomberg and the # FT .  Over-valued equities and concerns about A.I. have been present for some time, but the last two headlines regarding cred

Concerns regarding tariffs and trade rhetoric faded a bit in the second half of the week in the U.S., which gave way to decent economic data and a strong start to the earnings season. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs (again). Yields were under modest pressure at the long end of the curve.

This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs

Stocks and bonds declined last week, although stocks ended the week on a positive note after a strong US jobs report. Gold and oil higher.

The consensus view is that stocks will rise modestly in 2023. History has proven one thing – analysts will be wrong!