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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Revisiting Saudi Aramco
Saudi Aramco did a much-watched IPO in Dec 2019. This article looks at the performance of the shares since the IPO (and other IOCs).

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 30, 20229 min read


The Federal Reserve's balance sheet
The Federal Reserve is in the early stages of reducing its balance sheet, or quantitative tightening ("QT").

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 23, 20226 min read


Is the Crypto winter over?
BTC and its brethren have bounced back from early July lows, but is this edition of a crypto winter over? I take a look in this article.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 20, 202211 min read


2022 so far: not a year to remember for investors!
2022 has been an abysmal year for most indices and asset classes globally, with the exceptions being oil, gold and the FTSE 100. Now what?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 7, 20228 min read


FOREX
FOREX is in the news, especially as many think the USD has reached its peak and is at an inflection point. What drives FOREX? Read on.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 25, 20229 min read


The Federal Reserve and the Decade of 2010-2020
The decade 2010-20 involved a very hands-on approach by the Fed to steer the US economy out of a deep recession. What lessons can be learnt

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 10, 202214 min read


Will the US dollar remain the global reserve currency?
It is fashionable to espouse the end of the US dollar as the leading global reserve currency, but this will not occur anytime soon.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 17, 20228 min read


Oil update: prices skyrocket
With oil approaching $100/bbl, it is hard to imagine that demand and supply were so out of line in April 2020 that oil prices went negative!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 24, 20227 min read


Corporate bonds: why you should care about this market
This is a primer on corporate bonds, investment grade & high yield. It also discusses the pandemic and its effect on the corp bond market.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 8, 202218 min read


Buy the Dip or Sell the Rip?
Given the poor performance of equities so far this year, I wanted to take a quick high level look at valuations of a number of stocks...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 27, 202210 min read


ARK Invest Update
I have written about the ARK Invest family of actively-managed ETFs in the past in E-MorningCoffee. You will find this update interesting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 21, 20228 min read


FOMO, TINA, YOLO and the Fed
Don't look to fundamentals to explain equity prices today – look to attitudes embedded in acronyms. And don't forget the super-easy Fed!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 23, 20214 min read


Enjoy these stocks if you own them; tread carefully if you don’t
This article looks at recent performance of and valuation metrics of the FAMAG stocks and four others: SHOP, NVDA, TSLA and NFLX.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 8, 20218 min read


Is the bond market doing the Fed's dirty work?
The bond market looks to be doing the Fed's dirty work, sending short term yields to post-pandemic highs. Is the Fed being too methodical?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20215 min read


About that transitory inflation........
I continue to believe that inflation will be transitory, but supply-push inflation will cause inflation to be higher longer.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 8, 20214 min read


Week ended March 13, 2026: war weighs on markets
Investors got hammered again this week with few places to hide. Having said this, it could be worse. The Trump Administration continues to release conflicting information about the status of the war, but it is clear that the Iranians are not about to capitulate. This is causing all sorts of problems with the oil market, and this in turn is splattering both global stocks and bonds.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 135 min read


Week ended March 6, 2026: war breaks out, global assets trashed
War breaks out with rather significant effects on the global economy, including sharply higher oil prices and increasing inflation expectations. This filtered through to stocks and bonds, both of which took a beating this week.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 78 min read


Week ended February 27, 2026: sentiment is "risk off"
US stocks lost ground and are performing poorly YtD, especially compared to stocks in the UK, Europe and Japan, all of which closed at record highs on Friday. US Treasuries suddenly have a safe haven bid, with the yield on the 10y finally dropping below 4%. Gold remains strongly bid, Bitcoin remains largely without a bid.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 284 min read
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