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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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FOREX
FOREX is in the news, especially as many think the USD has reached its peak and is at an inflection point. What drives FOREX? Read on.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 25, 20229 min read


The Federal Reserve and the Decade of 2010-2020
The decade 2010-20 involved a very hands-on approach by the Fed to steer the US economy out of a deep recession. What lessons can be learnt

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 10, 202214 min read


Will the US dollar remain the global reserve currency?
It is fashionable to espouse the end of the US dollar as the leading global reserve currency, but this will not occur anytime soon.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 17, 20228 min read


Oil update: prices skyrocket
With oil approaching $100/bbl, it is hard to imagine that demand and supply were so out of line in April 2020 that oil prices went negative!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 24, 20227 min read


Corporate bonds: why you should care about this market
This is a primer on corporate bonds, investment grade & high yield. It also discusses the pandemic and its effect on the corp bond market.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 8, 202218 min read


Buy the Dip or Sell the Rip?
Given the poor performance of equities so far this year, I wanted to take a quick high level look at valuations of a number of stocks...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 27, 202210 min read


ARK Invest Update
I have written about the ARK Invest family of actively-managed ETFs in the past in E-MorningCoffee. You will find this update interesting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 21, 20228 min read


FOMO, TINA, YOLO and the Fed
Don't look to fundamentals to explain equity prices today – look to attitudes embedded in acronyms. And don't forget the super-easy Fed!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 23, 20214 min read


Enjoy these stocks if you own them; tread carefully if you don’t
This article looks at recent performance of and valuation metrics of the FAMAG stocks and four others: SHOP, NVDA, TSLA and NFLX.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 8, 20218 min read


Is the bond market doing the Fed's dirty work?
The bond market looks to be doing the Fed's dirty work, sending short term yields to post-pandemic highs. Is the Fed being too methodical?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20215 min read


About that transitory inflation........
I continue to believe that inflation will be transitory, but supply-push inflation will cause inflation to be higher longer.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 8, 20214 min read


Week ended October 10th, 2025
The melt up continued in risk markets until late Friday morning, when a post of Mr Trump's Truth Social website reported that the U.S. would impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. starting Nov 1st because of further restrictions by China on their export of critical earth minerals. In any event, this one way trajectory up needed a pause. Monday will be interesting!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 115 min read


Week ended October 3, 2025: everything higher again, feeling more vulnerable
Another strong quarter for investors has come and gone, with the third quarter “buy any and everything” rally carrying on as we start the...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 43 min read


Week ended Sept 26, 2025: markets drift
It was a slow drift lower in US stocks and bonds this past week, although Friday's PCE (inflation, August) and other economic data was sufficiently balanced to create a slight bounce. Global stocks were mixed, with U.K. and Japanese stocks generating the best returns WoW.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 273 min read


Week ended Sept 19, 2025: Fed cuts, stocks like it!
The Fed finally cuts the Fed Funds rate and moves to an easing path which shockingly (sarcasm), gave equity investors another reason to send stocks higher. Treasuries though said "meh", and yields even rose at the long end of the curve.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 213 min read


Week ended Sept 12, 2025: FOMC rate cut coming
Markets were good again this week, with stocks and bonds both increasing in spite of plenty of economic headwinds on the horizon and growing geopolitical risks. Nothing seems able to stop the momentum......until it does!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 124 min read


Week ended Sept 5, 2025: jobs report ends week with a thud
The S&P 500 hit another record high, but stock investors reacted poorly to a weaker-than-expected jobs report for August. Bonds rallied, as a slowing US economy portends a weaker labor market and potentially slack demand, setting aside concerns about long-term inflation, at least for the time being. Gold continued on its tear.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 73 min read


Week ended August 29, 2025
Markets largely slid sideways in the usually quiet end of the month of August. There was news though, including the last of Mag 7earnings (NVDA), political turmoil in France, PCE for July, and th usual list of Trump matters.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 314 min read
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