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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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3,200? Possible but I hope not!
This is an article based on correspondence with two readers, both coming to the same conclusion – the S&P 500 is going to drop further!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 20, 20223 min read
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Revisiting Saudi Aramco
Saudi Aramco did a much-watched IPO in Dec 2019. This article looks at the performance of the shares since the IPO (and other IOCs).
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 30, 20229 min read
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The Federal Reserve's balance sheet
The Federal Reserve is in the early stages of reducing its balance sheet, or quantitative tightening ("QT").
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 23, 20226 min read
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Is the Crypto winter over?
BTC and its brethren have bounced back from early July lows, but is this edition of a crypto winter over? I take a look in this article.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 20, 202211 min read
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2022 so far: not a year to remember for investors!
2022 has been an abysmal year for most indices and asset classes globally, with the exceptions being oil, gold and the FTSE 100. Now what?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 7, 20228 min read
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FOREX
FOREX is in the news, especially as many think the USD has reached its peak and is at an inflection point. What drives FOREX? Read on.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 25, 20229 min read
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The Federal Reserve and the Decade of 2010-2020
The decade 2010-20 involved a very hands-on approach by the Fed to steer the US economy out of a deep recession. What lessons can be learnt
tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 10, 202214 min read
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Will the US dollar remain the global reserve currency?
It is fashionable to espouse the end of the US dollar as the leading global reserve currency, but this will not occur anytime soon.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 17, 20228 min read
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Oil update: prices skyrocket
With oil approaching $100/bbl, it is hard to imagine that demand and supply were so out of line in April 2020 that oil prices went negative!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 24, 20227 min read
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Corporate bonds: why you should care about this market
This is a primer on corporate bonds, investment grade & high yield. It also discusses the pandemic and its effect on the corp bond market.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 8, 202218 min read
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Buy the Dip or Sell the Rip?
Given the poor performance of equities so far this year, I wanted to take a quick high level look at valuations of a number of stocks...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 27, 202210 min read
250
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ARK Invest Update
I have written about the ARK Invest family of actively-managed ETFs in the past in E-MorningCoffee. You will find this update interesting.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 21, 20228 min read
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FOMO, TINA, YOLO and the Fed
Don't look to fundamentals to explain equity prices today – look to attitudes embedded in acronyms. And don't forget the super-easy Fed!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 23, 20214 min read
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Enjoy these stocks if you own them; tread carefully if you don’t
This article looks at recent performance of and valuation metrics of the FAMAG stocks and four others: SHOP, NVDA, TSLA and NFLX.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 8, 20218 min read
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Is the bond market doing the Fed's dirty work?
The bond market looks to be doing the Fed's dirty work, sending short term yields to post-pandemic highs. Is the Fed being too methodical?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 20, 20215 min read
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About that transitory inflation........
I continue to believe that inflation will be transitory, but supply-push inflation will cause inflation to be higher longer.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 8, 20214 min read
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Week ended April 18, 2025
There will be no "Fed put" according to Mr Powell, which rattled markets and evoked a response from Mr Trump. US equities slumped again.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 195 min read
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Week ended April 11, 2025: Bonds speak the truth
We're up, we're down, we're all around! US stocks remain volatile but ended higher. Bonds are the "adult in the room" though.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 126 min read
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