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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 14, 20237 min read
Stocks - do they always go up?
Stocks do not always go up over shorter periods, but they do over longer periods. This article provides empirical support, see for yourself
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 8, 20235 min read
Earnings (so far): good or bad?
Earnings for S&P 500 companies have been "better-than-expected" so far. Does this tell the whole story? Stocks are ripping anyway!
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 27, 20234 min read
Economic outlook vs stock prices
Economic data is mixed. Cautious corporate and cautious bank outlooks are causing anxiety, but are not keeping stock markets from rallying
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 23, 20232 min read
FAMAG (+TSLA) quarterly earnings: everything you need to know
The five mega-tech FAMAG names start reporting their quarterly earnings ended Dec 30th, 2022, this week. I also included TSLA.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 5, 20233 min read
My 2023 year-end guesses
The Street pros provide year-end 2023 projections for stocks and bonds, so why not EMC? Here are my guesstimates and rationales.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20223 min read
WEEKLY: Damn glad that's over!
It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 22, 202210 min read
Predicting stock prices: 2023
The consensus view is that stocks will rise modestly in 2023. History has proven one thing – analysts will be wrong!
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 12, 20222 min read
The Fed, Bank of England and ECB: monetary policy decisions
This week we have monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the Bank of England and the ECB, the last of the year. This provides context.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 8, 20227 min read
Windfall taxes are a stupid idea
Windfall taxes are economically stupid, which might be why politicians seem to like the idea so much. Banks and energy companies are at risk
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 4, 20225 min read
Fine wine – an alternative asset for all seasons
As traditional asset classes get ever-more turbulent, alternative assets become ever-more attractive. This article is about fine wine.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 22, 20226 min read
Tesla: as resilient as ever
Love it or hate it, the fact is that Tesla's stock performance has left nearly all peers – tech and automotive – in the dust. Now what?
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 20, 20223 min read
3,200? Possible but I hope not!
This is an article based on correspondence with two readers, both coming to the same conclusion – the S&P 500 is going to drop further!
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 30, 20229 min read
Revisiting Saudi Aramco
Saudi Aramco did a much-watched IPO in Dec 2019. This article looks at the performance of the shares since the IPO (and other IOCs).
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 23, 20226 min read
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet
The Federal Reserve is in the early stages of reducing its balance sheet, or quantitative tightening ("QT").
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 20, 202211 min read
Is the Crypto winter over?
BTC and its brethren have bounced back from early July lows, but is this edition of a crypto winter over? I take a look in this article.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 7, 20228 min read
2022 so far: not a year to remember for investors!
2022 has been an abysmal year for most indices and asset classes globally, with the exceptions being oil, gold and the FTSE 100. Now what?
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 25, 20229 min read
FOREX
FOREX is in the news, especially as many think the USD has reached its peak and is at an inflection point. What drives FOREX? Read on.
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tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 10, 202214 min read
The Federal Reserve and the Decade of 2010-2020
The decade 2010-20 involved a very hands-on approach by the Fed to steer the US economy out of a deep recession. What lessons can be learnt
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