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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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The US debt ceiling debacle
The debt ceiling is front & centre as the date the US Treasury runs out of cash is drawing dangerously near. Here's my two cents, enjoy!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 24, 20237 min read
S&P 500 1Q2023: Tech stars dominate (again)
Tech companies drove the 7% return of the S&P 500 in the 1Q23. Without the "magnificent seven", the index would have been flattish.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 5, 20234 min read
The end of Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank went from fine to dead in less than 48 hours. Why and how? Could it have been prevented? What now?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 13, 202312 min read
Stock repurchases (thanks Mr Buffet)
In his Letter to Shareholders, Mr Buffet raised the issue of the 1% excise tax on stock repurchases, a bad idea. I think he is right!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 27, 20236 min read
The Great Reveal
Since I write a lot about markets and macroeconomic topics, it is only fair that I talk about my own investment portfolio.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 23, 20237 min read
Stocks - do they always go up?
Stocks do not always go up over shorter periods, but they do over longer periods. This article provides empirical support, see for yourself
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 14, 20237 min read
Earnings (so far): good or bad?
Earnings for S&P 500 companies have been "better-than-expected" so far. Does this tell the whole story? Stocks are ripping anyway!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 8, 20235 min read
Economic outlook vs stock prices
Economic data is mixed. Cautious corporate and cautious bank outlooks are causing anxiety, but are not keeping stock markets from rallying
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 27, 20234 min read
FAMAG (+TSLA) quarterly earnings: everything you need to know
The five mega-tech FAMAG names start reporting their quarterly earnings ended Dec 30th, 2022, this week. I also included TSLA.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 23, 20232 min read
My 2023 year-end guesses
The Street pros provide year-end 2023 projections for stocks and bonds, so why not EMC? Here are my guesstimates and rationales.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 5, 20233 min read
WEEKLY: Damn glad that's over!
It was a holiday shortened, rather lacklustre week in markets. Good that 2022 is over. FY returns were poor across equities and bonds.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 31, 20223 min read
Predicting stock prices: 2023
The consensus view is that stocks will rise modestly in 2023. History has proven one thing – analysts will be wrong!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 22, 202210 min read
The Fed, Bank of England and ECB: monetary policy decisions
This week we have monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the Bank of England and the ECB, the last of the year. This provides context.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 12, 20222 min read
Windfall taxes are a stupid idea
Windfall taxes are economically stupid, which might be why politicians seem to like the idea so much. Banks and energy companies are at risk
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 8, 20227 min read
Fine wine – an alternative asset for all seasons
As traditional asset classes get ever-more turbulent, alternative assets become ever-more attractive. This article is about fine wine.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 4, 20225 min read
Tesla: as resilient as ever
Love it or hate it, the fact is that Tesla's stock performance has left nearly all peers – tech and automotive – in the dust. Now what?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 22, 20226 min read
3,200? Possible but I hope not!
This is an article based on correspondence with two readers, both coming to the same conclusion – the S&P 500 is going to drop further!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 20, 20223 min read
Revisiting Saudi Aramco
Saudi Aramco did a much-watched IPO in Dec 2019. This article looks at the performance of the shares since the IPO (and other IOCs).
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 30, 20229 min read
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