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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.
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WEEKLY: Fed walks back risk markets
Fed-speak undid the bond market as yields rose 20bps across the curve. NASDAQ paid the price. Oil sharply high, USD stable. FTSE 100 up.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 11, 20234 min read
Weekend thoughts (and not good ones!)
Liz Truss went on the talk show circuit this weekend to defend her short legacy as PM, and US debt ceiling discussions dragged on. Ugh!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 6, 20234 min read
Week ended Feb 3rd, 2023
Until the end of the week, the data and earnings were saying one thing and investors were hearing another. Markets decent though till Fri.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 5, 20234 min read
Corporate misbehaviour and the Adani Group
Let me begin this article by acknowledging that no country is immune to corporate fraud or graft. In fact, I can think of many more...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 3, 20237 min read
Musings to start the week
As we kick off the week with what looks like will be a weak opening in US stock and bond markets following weakness in Asian and European...
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 30, 20233 min read
WEEKLY: Risk assets head to the moon!
We are going "to the moon" across risk assets of all types. Can this continue? I'm not convinced but it's been a great start to 2023!
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 28, 20234 min read
WEEKLY: News mixed, markets skid sideways
Markets largely slid sideways this week. Large tech companies continue layoffs. Economic data suggests peak inflation has been reached.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 21, 20235 min read
WEEKLY: Goldilocks CPI report spurs risk rally
A goldilocks CPI report for Dec cheered markets on Thurs. spurring further risk-on. Bank earnings had warnings on Friday that were ignored.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 14, 20236 min read
US labour report stokes late-week rally (weekly update)
US markets started the year poorly, but a balanced NFP report for Dec, released Friday, cheered investors. European equities even stronger.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 7, 20233 min read
WEEKLY: Worse than expected on declining volumes
Markets generally worse than expected on declining volumes, as we head to the holiday break. BoJ shocked markets, US PCE in-line.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 24, 20222 min read
WEEKLY: Actions speak louder than words
The Fed, ECB and BoE all did exactly as predicted, but comments following press releases were decidedly hawkish. Markets puked on this.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 18, 20226 min read
WEEKLY: Big week ahead, CPI and central bank meetings
Mixed week, sentiment shifters driving momentum markets. US economy continuing to show resiliency, muting the Fed's fight against inflation
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 10, 20225 min read
WEEKLY: Didn't see that coming!
The good news is that Nov was a terrific and positive month for stocks and bonds. The bad news is inflation won't go away. Read on....
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 3, 20225 min read
WEEKLY: Risk markets grind higher
Stocks and bonds are much better on the week, continuing a nice run in the 4Q22. The rally is broadening and orderly. Too much, too fast?
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 26, 20224 min read
BREXIT: it just won’t go away
The UK is continuing to experience a BREXIT hangover. The economy is in desperate need of help, but the Tories seem unable to move forward
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 22, 20228 min read
WEEKLY: Fed “talking heads” pour cold water on rally
The week could have been worse thanks to the talking heads from the Fed, but Friday saved the day. Yield curve steepens, oil prices plummet
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 19, 20226 min read
WEEKLY: US CPI and midterms push markets higher
FTX goes bust, US CPI suggests possible Fed pivot, and US midterms lead to the end of Dem progressive legislation. Equities & bonds rally.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 12, 20226 min read
WEEKLY: Fed, BoE raise rates; US equities / bonds take it on the chin
US equities and bonds get crushed, other global equity markets improve. USTs weaker, gold rallies, oil up and USD lower. Fed, BoE raise.
tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 5, 20227 min read
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