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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended June 19, 2026: equities head higher (mostly)
Markets ripped off the back of a 2 page MoU between the US and Iran that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The FOMC meeting had its first session under new chair Kevin Warsh, and he sounded even more hawkish than Mr Powell. SpaceX rocketed ahead 42% in its first (almost) full week of life. That's insane, but go ahead – load up! Friday was a holiday in the US.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 194 min read


Week ended August 15, 2025: markets stagnate second half of week
U.S. stocks hit record highs mid-week for two days running, but softened after worst-than-expected PPI data and eroding consumer confidence, released Thursday and Friday, put a dent in the animal spirits driving risk assets higher. UST yields rose, remaining stubbornly high and not very connected to what the FOMC might or might not do at the next FOMC meeting.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 15, 20254 min read


Cars, tariffs and social security "fraud"
This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 19, 20257 min read


Week ended August 30, 2024
Earnings and economic data (especially inflation data) continued to improve risk sentiment. The yield curve inversion ended. Dollar better

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 1, 20246 min read


Week ended July 5, 2024: UK election and US jobs report
Labour wins overwhelming majority in UK Parliamentary election. US jobs report favourable for inflation. French election ahead.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 6, 20245 min read
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