Assuming the “phase one trade agreement” with China doesn’t fade today, the combination of the initial stages of what might turn out to be the beginning of the end of this damaging trade war with China (via deferment of the December 15th tariffs), and – at last – clarity with respect to BREXIT, this was always going to be a “risk on” day across asset classes. In fact, the bourses in Europe and the US stock markets are rallying across the board as I write this. Investors have realised huge returns this year nearly everywhere – returns on nearly all major global asset classes have been positive, and many of the returns have been substantial. Equity returns on all major global developed market indices are 20%+ YtD. The table at the end of this post illustrate returns in the 4Q (to date) and YtD in major global asset classes, including equities, US bonds, other assets and global currencies. It is hard to have gone wrong this year anywhere, as these tables illustrate, but don’t get used to it. I imagine that 2020 will not be as easy!
Comments