The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday evening, not long after President Trump had warned Iran that “a civilisation will die tonight”.  Perhaps this belligerent rhetoric was effective, or perhaps not.  In any event, the bombing stopped – or at least most of it – on Tuesday evening as a fragile two-week ceasefire was agreed and started.  US and Iranian delegations are in Islamabad this weekend negotiating what will hopefully be a permanent solution to this c

Global stocks and bonds continued to spiral down as the war in the Middle East continues with no end in sight. In this update, I discuss the Fed's dilemma in a stagflation scenario, and how oil prices are likely to affect both headline and cor inflation.

War breaks out with rather significant effects on the global economy, including sharply higher oil prices and increasing inflation expectations. This filtered through to stocks and bonds, both of which took a beating this week.

FitchRatings downgraded the US to AA+ on Tuesday, triggering a harsh response from the Biden Administration but nonchalance from investors.

US equity markets hit new records and the UST market stabilised. Economics news was robust. Banks released earnings, Coinbase listed.