top of page
Home: Welcome
My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

Search


Week ended Sept 11, 2026: a week to forget for investors
Stocks and bonds both got hammered, although global stocks did claw back some of the weekly losses during a strong session on Friday. Inflation in the US for August came in as expected, but was higher than in July setting the stage for a likely increase in the Fed Funds rate at this week's FOMC meeting. Consumer confidence tanked, and President Trump presented the idea of a "Trump Dividend" if Republicans carry the House and Senate. That's simply a stupid idea, but hey....

tim@emorningcoffee.com
16 hours ago5 min read


Week ended Sept 4, 2026: little movement in global markets
Markets largely drifted sideways again this past week, with U.S. stocks mixed, and European and Japanese stocks giving up ground. U.S. Treasury yields inched higher across the curve. The August U.S. jobs report showed solid growth, increasing the chance that the FOMC will raise the Fed Funds rate on Sept 18th. The Yen strengthened on expectations that the BoJ will do the right thing, and increase its policy rate. Gold was slightly weaker, and BTC held on to its recent gai

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 55 min read


Government intervention is not a long-term fix
Government intervention in currency and government bond markets is nothing more than a band-aid. If the underlying structural issues are not addressed, the "feel good" of intervention will fade fast. This is exactly what we are seeing with the Yen and at the long end of the UST curve with yields.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 266 min read


10% cap on credit card interest: a very bad idea!
President Trump has shown his populist colours by jumping on board a liberal proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. This makes no sense! And it looks to be going nowhere fast.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 296 min read


The K-shaped economy and affordability
This is a short article about the K-shaped economy, driven by persistently high inflation and exacerbated by the errant "One, Big Beautiful Bill".

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jan 75 min read


NATO
NATO was front and centre last week as the annual NATO Summit was held in The Hague on Tuesday and Wednesday, making it an opportune time...

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jul 2, 20257 min read


"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 26, 20256 min read


Cars, tariffs and social security "fraud"
This article summarises two articles and one podcast that are topical,: US/EU automotive tariffs, social security "fraud", and steel tariffs

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 19, 20257 min read


The US election: things you should know
Here are a few last-minute thoughts on the US election which will be held on Tuesday, Nov 5. A lot is at stake, but Weds, the world goes on

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Nov 3, 20244 min read
Home: Blog2
bottom of page