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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Global government bonds are deteriorating fast: “it ain’t looking good!”
Politicians will not voluntarily fix sovereign debt issues because fiscal discipline loses elections. The UK and France have already run out of runway and have their backs against the wall. The US is still "kicking the can", but when $1 out of every $5 collected goes strictly to paying interest, the market will eventually force a reckoning there as well.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 56 min read


Week ended Oct 2, 2026: stocks and bonds remain under pressure
The key driver last week was the US jobs report for September, which came in weaker than expected. This spared stocks, which staged a recovery on the basis that the Fed would not be so hawkish. But it did not spare bonds, in the US or elsewhere, as yields raced higher. What really caught my attention was the sudden widening in corporate credit spreads, which had remained resilient to the turmoil around for many months.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 45 min read


The SAVE Act and voter fraud in the US
The SAVE Act is currently front and centre in the US Senate, second perhaps only to the unfortunate conflict in the Middle East. This article looks at the SAVE Act and voter fraud in the US, and how other countries deal with the issue of vetting citizens to vote in their federal elections.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 259 min read


Week ended Sept 12, 2025: FOMC rate cut coming
Markets were good again this week, with stocks and bonds both increasing in spite of plenty of economic headwinds on the horizon and growing geopolitical risks. Nothing seems able to stop the momentum......until it does!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Sep 12, 20254 min read


Week ended Dec 6, 2024: risk markets and USTs better, Bitcoin soars to record
Stocks reached more record highs in the US, but Asian and European stocks outperformed. UST yields slightly lower. Bitcoin soars to record

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Dec 7, 20247 min read


Week ended June 28, 2024: Geopolitics dominate, markets lacklustre
The news narrative was dominated by elections in the UK and France, and the first Biden-Trump debate. Markets were lacklustre to close 1H24

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 30, 20245 min read


Week ended June 14, 2024: US inflation slows
US CPI surprised on the downside (lower than expected) this week, setting a constructive tone. The FOMC says one rate cut, Europe wobbles.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 15, 20243 min read
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