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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended March 31, 2023
Risk markets ended a solid first quarter, as stocks and bonds rallied. The wind feels as if it is at our back as risk assets power forward.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 1, 20235 min read
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Week ended March 24, 2023
Concerns about banking arguably subsided as the week wore on, with Fed and BoE rate decisions taking centre stage. Risk assets better bid.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 25, 20235 min read
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Musings to start the week (and it's all about banks)
UBS was seemingly strong-armed into a stock-for-stock acquisition of CS, ending that saga. What does this mean for global banking system?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 19, 20236 min read
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Week ended March 17, 2023
Bank concerns continue even as solutions were put forth for First Republic and CS. NASDAQ and Bitcoin rally, other markets signal risk off

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 18, 20235 min read
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Moral hazard following SIVB
The Fed, Treasury and FIDC took two steps last Sunday to address the SIVB situation. Are these effectively a form or moral hazard?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 15, 20237 min read
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WEEKLY: Regulatory takeover of SIVB steals the show
In a week full of economic data and news, the take-over of Silicon Valley Bank by the FDIC spurred a risk-off attitude, with USTs gaining.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 11, 20234 min read
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WEEKLY: Much ado about nothing
Earnings season ended and data was sparse. Equities rallied, gaining in the US for the first time in 4 weeks. Bond yields rose.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Mar 4, 20234 min read
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WEEKLY: US economy running hot
The combination of the Fed's ongoing rhetoric and strong economic data finally hits home, as US stocks falter, following the UST market.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 18, 20234 min read
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WEEKLY: Fed walks back risk markets
Fed-speak undid the bond market as yields rose 20bps across the curve. NASDAQ paid the price. Oil sharply high, USD stable. FTSE 100 up.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 11, 20234 min read
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