Stocks mixed, with Japanese and emerging markets stocks chalking up gains, while European stocks lost ground. US stocks were mixed. Yields were higher at the belly and long end of the UST curve, with inflationary expectations remaining elevated. Gold and oil were higher, the Yen and Bitcoin weaker.

In spite of the noise in global markets, it’s August – does anyone care? Investors celebrated the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday, rounding out a week in which both global stocks and bonds rallied. The U.S. jobs report pushed markets to price a higher probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in September and begin cutting later in the year, so stocks – especially more interest-rate sensitive stocks like small caps (e.g. the Russell 2000 index) – ra

A volatile month draws to a close, with global bond yields higher as inflation expectations remain elevated. With no sign of the end of the Middle East conflict, investors very much remain on edge. Ongoing concerns regarding A.I. spending are also weighing on sentiment.

All four major central banks held their policy rates steady last week, but all of them also had a hawkish bias. Earnings continued to be supportive of higher stock prices, with five of the Mag 7 companies all beating on the top and bottom lines. Yields were higher as bonds got hammered, thanks to ongoing concerns regarding higher oil-induced inflation. There is no end in sight to the Iran-U.S. conflict.

Stocks are in a severe recovery stage, boosted further by the announcement on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was being reopened to commercial traffic. Oil prices plunged, stocks took another leg up, and yields fell across the curve. Let the good times roll.....or are things really this good?

Most U.S. stock indices were weaker WoW, except for the small/mid cap Russell 2000 which has strung together some amazing gains YtD (+7.9%). Other global equity indices were generally positive. USTs lost ground, and both gold and Bitcoin pushed higher. This all happened in a backdrop in which the U.S. president introduced a series of populist and interventionist proposals that are drifting wider and wider from Republican principals.

Earnings for S&P 500 companies have been "better-than-expected" so far. Does this tell the whole story? Stocks are ripping anyway!

The five mega-tech FAMAG names start reporting their quarterly earnings ended Dec 30th, 2022, this week. I also included TSLA.

The consensus view is that stocks will rise modestly in 2023. History has proven one thing – analysts will be wrong!