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My view on what's going on in the financial markets and the global economy, and a few other things that might interest me from time to time.

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Week ended May 23, 2025: all eyes on US budget
All eyes have been on the 2025-26 US budget discussions in the House this week, with the "big beautiful bill" getting through (albeit barely) and heading to the Senate. Professional bond and currency investors are signalling concern, visible in higher UST yields and a weaker US Dollar.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
May 237 min read
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"Worst economy ever"? Not even close!
Inspired by Mr Trump's false claims that he inherited the "worst economy ever", this article looks at administrations' economic performance.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 266 min read
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Week ended Feb 14, 2025: markets slightly better
Inflation continues to confound, although investors largely shook it off. Market volatility remains elevated but stocks better WoW.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 154 min read
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US deficits / debt soar; should you care?
US deficits are soaring, along with US debt to finance the "exceptional growth" of the US. Can this continue?

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Jun 25, 20246 min read
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Week ended April 19, 2024: not a good week!
It was another challenging week for both stocks and bonds, with the sell-off in equities gaining steam as tech stocks flounder.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Apr 20, 20248 min read
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Deficits spiral, Congress disappoints
The decision-making ability of Congress is poor and getting worse, just as US deficits spiral higher and higher. Something needs to be done

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Oct 9, 20237 min read
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FitchRatings downgrades the US: does anyone care?
FitchRatings downgraded the US to AA+ on Tuesday, triggering a harsh response from the Biden Administration but nonchalance from investors.

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Aug 4, 20235 min read
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Weekend thoughts (and not good ones!)
Liz Truss went on the talk show circuit this weekend to defend her short legacy as PM, and US debt ceiling discussions dragged on. Ugh!

tim@emorningcoffee.com
Feb 6, 20234 min read
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